The Other Beast

2011 BASEBALL PREVIEW

Part 4: National League East

Projected Standings:

1. Philadelphia Phillies

T-2. Florida Marlins

T-2. Atlanta Braves

4. Washington Nationals

5. New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies:

Lineup:

They’re past the days of the MVP trifecta, but they’re still deep in speed and power. Utley is the best second baseman in the game (I expect him to bounce back like one) and Howard is a shoe in for power. However, Rollins’ game keeps getting worse, they’re hanging a lot of hope on rookie Dominic Brown, and last year we started to see the effect of age and injuries on this team. This is a team that hit .216 in the NLCS, is a year older, and lost Jayson Werth. It’ll be the Phillies Achilles heal.

Things could not get more ridiculous in Philly

 Pitching:

Do I even need to address this? They’ve got the best overall pitcher in the game (Halladay), and one of the best lefties (Lee).  FIP shows that Hamels’ and Oswalt’s ERAs should move more towards their career norms this season, but that’s still great production from the middle of your rotation. Blanton won’t do anything special in the five spot, but does it matter with those four pitching in front of you? The bullpen could hurt them, but with the workhorses in the rotation who knows how often they’ll be used.

Overall:

Without Cliff Lee the Braves might have been able to overtake the Phillies, but Romero Jr.’s new splash puts this team on top. The offense still has a lot of holes, but for right now they’ll be great throughout the season. I’m not sure what they’ll do in the postseason, but this is at least a team designed to win in the regular season, with strong pitching and an adequate offense. Adding another bullpen arm or younger bat couldn’t hurt.

Florida Marlins:

Lineup:

This lineup may be young, but they’ve also got enough upside to be the best in the NL East. Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton are two big names that are ready to break out this season. Omar Infante brings a little bit of everything to the table, while John Buck (an under the radar signing) brings extra power. With a healthy Chris Coghlan leading off there’s a lot to like here. I’d love to see Hanley turn his attitude around, but at least I know, with his bat, to expect greatness.

Pitching:

They continue to fly under the radar, but I really like this rotation. I think Josh Johnson is the best up-and-comer in the league, and when healthy he can easily put together a Cy-Young caliber season. Ricky Nolasco continues to exhibit great control and a big slider, but suffering from bad luck has hurt his numbers. Anibal Sanchez, a name no one really hears that often, has quietly put together stellar back-to-back seasons.  Javvy Vazquez seemed to completely lose his control in New York last year, but maybe he can find it in his second tour of duty in the NL East.

Overall:

I love this team’s upside, but I seem like the only one. The young offense can be really good. Mike Stanton has tremendous power, and Logan Morrison has an incredibly fluid swing; having them around Hanley will mean big things. The starters have suffered from some bad fielding the last couple of years; however, Omar Infante and top prospect Matt Dominguez (known for his glove) are huge improvements over Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu. I wish they could have held on to Cameron Maybin, for the upside alone, but moving him shored up a weak bullpen. They’ve got a lot of fantastic pieces, and it’ll be exciting to see how the puzzle comes together.

Atlanta Braves:

Lineup:

There’s a lot to like about Atlanta’s improvements this winter. Uggla gives them right-handed power, and they’re able to move Martin Prado to the outfield. If healthy I think Heyward will have a huge season, and there’s a lot of positive talk around rookie Freddie Freeman. Then there’s Brian McCann, one of the best catcher’s in the NL. The biggest holes are Chipper Jones and Nate McLouth. I’m not going to bet big money on come back seasons for them, and that’s what is really holding this team back.

Pitching:

No one is deeper in pitching than the Braves. They’ve got Hudson and Lowe, the two workhorse veterans; Tommy Hanson, the up and coming ace with huge swing-and-miss stuff; and Jair Jurrjens, who enters the season pretty underrated after a tough injury last year. Then, they have incredible depth, with prospects Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Randall Delgado, and top prospect Julio Teheran, who could all crack the rotation this season. They also return with the best bullpen in the NL, with young Craig Kimbrel who’s capable of having a big year as closer.

Overall:

The pitching is all there, the fielding is all there, the only thing they need is a healthy offense. I think the middle of the order (McCann, Heyward, Uggle, Freeman) will have a heck of a season, but the supporting cast could use some shoring up. Chipper Jones has played pretty well this deep into his career, but the injuries are really affecting his bat. Nate McLouth is quickly becoming a bust and he needs to do something to get his swing back on track. The Braves have enough farm depth that they could make a good run at the trade deadline. Time will tell, but with one more competent bat this team can easily leapfrog Philadelphia.

Washington Nationals:

Lineup:

Even without Bryce Harper they’ve got a pretty solid lineup. Ryan Zimmerman became the best third baseman in the NL last season, and his do-everything bat anchors this young lineup. Ian Desmond and Nyjer Morgan know how to disrupt the base paths, Espinosa and Ramos represent two prospects with a lot of power, and Jayson Werth adds another complete bat to slot behind Zimmerman. They’re young, but there’s a lot of upside here, and on the farm.

Pitching:

Yes, Strasburg is out indefinitely right now, but that doesn’t mean the season is over. The rotation is pretty mediocre, but they’ve got a couple guys who can put together respectable seasons. I also think Jordan Zimmerman (someone who’s flown under the radar ever since Strasburg) is going to have a big breakout season. He has a dynamic arm, great control, and an uncanny ability to make guys miss his stuff. The bullpen is also very good, headlined by Drew Storen, Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard.

Overall:

I don’t know if they’ll really overtake the Mets, but I wouldn’t be surprised. The offense and defense are pretty good, the bullpen is shaping up nicely, and the starting pitching is average. But, they have a deep farm with young guys ready to contribute. There’s also Jordan Zimmerman, who’s got ace stuff and will be a leader for the staff. Then there’s always the possibility that we could see Strasburg and Harper playing come September. I rated them 4^th in the division based purely on upside, but with a lucky season they could really deserve it.

New York Mets:

Overall:

The biggest reason I think this team will perform worse than the Nationals is the lack of an ace. Johan Santana doesn’t have a timetable for his return right now and that uncertainty is really going to hurt the Mets. Pelfrey is not dependable; knuckleballer R.A. Dickey has stats padded by spacious Citi Field (3.58 away ERA vs. 1.99 at home); and does anyone think Chris Young can stay healthy? The offense has it’s own issues too: Jason Bay lost all his power (and no, I do not think he is as dynamic a player as David Wright that he’ll gain it back); Carlos Beltran continues to break down; they still have Luis Castillo at second; and they lack a true starting right fielder. This is a team that continues to get damaged and bruised, and I don’t think this season will be any different.