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2011 BASEBALL PREVIEW

Part 5: National League Central

Projected Standings:

1. Milwaukee Brewers

2. Cincinnati Reds

3. Chicago Cubs

4. St. Louis Cardinals

5. Houston Astros

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

It's only a matter of time until the doughnuts run out; make it count Brew Crew

 Milwaukee Brewers:

Lineup:

Offense has been Milwaukee’s bread and butter the last few seasons and that’s no different heading into 2011. 2010 saw the breakouts of Rickie Weeks and Casey McGehee, joining Braun and Fielder as mainstays in the lineup with big power. The lineup lacks speed, but Carlos Gomez is capable of 30 steals if he can get on base enough. In 2010 the Brewers saw five players hit 20+ homers, and two toped 30 (with Rickie Weeks just missing out with 29). The bottom line: expect these guys to take the ball out of the field.

Pitching:

Forget Cliff Lee going to the Phillies, the Brewers have the most improved pitching staff this season. They went from having a pseudo ace and no real number two, to having Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. Greinke had a rough season in Kansas City, but FIP shows he suffered from some bad luck. FIP says the same thing about Gallardo, and so I expect both these guys to dominate this year. Marcum is a workhorse who’s always been undervalued, and there are a lot worse number four starters than Randy Wolf. The Brewers also have top prospect Mark Rogers who cracked the roster last year and could see some starts.

Overall:

They have the premier power offense in baseball, and finally a competent rotation. I think Greinke is going to thrive in an environment where: a) he isn’t the only good player, and b) the team is in contention. The rotation is rebuilt and stacked and I don’t think anybody in the Central can stop the Brewers this year (which means a lot because I’m big on the Reds). However, they depleted the farm acquiring their two new studs and that could hurt them if they see significant injuries in 2011. One more area of improvement could be the bullpen, though I like Axford’s potential at closer.

Cincinnati Reds:

Lineup:

They were the NL’s best offense last season and things look pretty good heading into 2011. As it was last season I think Joey Votto will once again overtake Albert Pujols as the best hitter in the game. His bat is absolutely unstoppable. Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs are secretly becoming very good players and they had great numbers last season. My biggest worry is the Scott Rolen and Jonny Gomes of 2010 not showing up in 2011. Luckily they have rookie Todd Frazier and Yonder Alonso to add depth, and both guys could add more power to an already stacked lineup.

Pitching:

Ridiculous

They have seven competent starters, and they’ve all got nasty stuff. Cueto gets better every year; Arroyo continues to defy the game and have good numbers; and I think Volquez is going to have a hell-of-a comeback campaign. Then there’s Mike Leake and Travis Wood who each made a splash last year by exploding into the rotation and putting up solid numbers. Last, but CERTAINLY not least, is Aroldis Chapman. I read a lot of positives and negatives about him in 2010, but when he hit 105 MPH you knew he was something special. The mechanics will be big in 2011, but if they can stay healthy this is a really good rotation.

Overall:

The Reds fought their way through the Central in 2010. I honestly believed they were the best in their division but, they didn’t always play like it. I think the rotation is still too young for the Reds to top the Brewers in 2011. It will be fun to watch these powerhouse arms develop, but I don’t think it’s all going to come together this season. The bullpen also lost some pieces and needs to get everything back together. They could surprise, but for right now the Brewers are the better pick.

Chicago Cubs:

Lineup:

The lineup isn’t pretty, but I think they’ll have more success in 2011 than they did in 2010. Starlin Castro makes me wonder what it’d be like if Ichiro played SS, and he’s charged with setting the table this year. Last season saw a bounce back for Geovany Soto, and now it’s Aramis Ramirez’s turn. Ramirez has been consistent for far too long, and I expect a .300 average and 30 homers out of him in 2011. New management might be the best thing for this club, particularly in the case of Lou playing Fukudome over Colvin too often in 2010.

Pitching:

Just like the lineup, it isn’t perfect, but it’s above average. I really like the acquisition of Matt Garza. He brings a passion with his game that could really help the other starters in 2011… or he could collide with Zambrano and make a super nova. Among other things: Ryan Dempster put up another great season, with 200 IP and 200 Ks; and Randy Wells fell to more reasonable numbers in 2011, but he’s still not bad as a number four.

Overall:

The Cubs are a team that has over spent and under developed the last few seasons, and this could be the beginning of a turn around. Matt Garza was a great trade, and the emergence of new, young, farm products could be a pick-me-up for an aging team. I’d love to see some big things from Colvin and Castro this season, and maybe even an appearance from Josh Vitters at the big league level. The big challenge for the Cubs will be getting over the egos and just having a fun, and well played, season.

St. Louis Cardinals:

Lineup:

It’s hard to rank any lineup with Albert Pujols low, but the fact is I’m underwhelmed by this Cardinal offense. Having two middle of the order bats ( Pujols+Holliday) means nothing without support. Colby Rasmus had a pretty good season last year, but you’ve already got him demanding a trade. David Freese has some impressive contact skills, and a fluid swing, but he was hurt last year and who knows how he’ll bounce back. Berkman will be the make-or-break piece for the Cardinals this year.

Pitching:

I love Adam Wainwright, and I am still baffled at his lack of a Cy-Young award; but, he cannot pitch every game for you St. Louis! Chris Carpenter was an enigma in 2009, and he started to show decline in 2010. Jake Westbrook is nothing more than a number four guy, and according to FIP Jaime Garcia had lady luck on his side last season. The supporting staff behind Wainwright is weak and the Cardinals can’t compete (especially in the playoffs) until that changes. 2009 first rounder Shelby Miller could be the answer, but I doubt we’ll see him in 2011.

Overall:

Right now I think the Cubs and Cardinals are pretty even, but because Chicago has deeper pitching and a better bullpen I gave them the edge. It could probably go either way though. St. Louis has a great ace, and a great 3-4 combo, but they need better complementary pieces. They also have an incredibly thin bullpen that doesn’t have anyone who really sticks out. A thinning farm system limits trades so they’ll have to play above their ceiling in 2011 to make a run.

Houston Astros:

Overall:

The only reason they’re slotted here is because they actually have a couple of good starters. Wandy Rodriguez has proved he wasn’t a one-year wonder, and Brett Meyers continues to be consistent. The offense continues to look ugly, especially with Carlos Lee’s decline last season. Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson could break out this season, but I’m not betting any money on that one. The biggest issue with Houston is they continue to have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and that’s okay if you’re active in free agency, which they are not. They’ll have to figure something out and start rebuilding, or else they’re going to continue to fall behind.

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Overall:

Dear Pittsburgh: pitching is half the game; you do remember that, right? Okay, okay, that’s not completely fair, they do have James McDonald; but, besides that there is no one worthwhile in that rotation. I like McDonald’s upside, and I think he can have a good season, but besides that there is no one (except for Jameson Taillon, who is a long ways away). The offense has some interesting pieces in it. I really like Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker has a good contact bat, Jose Tabata has speed, and Pedro Alvarez has massive power. Despite those threats in the lineup they don’t have the pitching to compete. Consecutive losing season number 19 here they come.