Fantasy Insight: Top 10 Closers

Italicized (number) is projected draft round

1. Joakim Soria- Kansas City (6)

2. Carlos Marmol- Chicago (8)

3. Heath Bell- San Diego (5)

4. Brian Wilson- San Francisco (5)

5. Joe Nathan- Minnesota (10)

6a. Neftali Feliz* (7)

6. Mariano River (8)

7. Huston Street (13)

8. John Axford (15)

9. Andrew Bailey (16)

10. Jonathan Papelbon (9)

*Texas is currently reworking Feliz back in as a starter, and they will decide this weekend whether to keep him in the rotation or the bullpen.

Sleeper: Craig Kimbrel

1. Joakim Soria

Soria is constantly overlooked because he closes for the Royals, but his stats are ridiculously elite. He has a career WHIP of 0.99 and a career ERA of 2.01. Over his last three seasons he’s averaged 38 saves a season. He’s also a strikeout closer so you get extra points from his guaranteed 65-75 Ks a season. Look at his situation this way: Kansas wins so rarely, that when they are winning they’re going to go to Soria, and he’ll be fresh and ready to dominate the 9^th.

2. Carlos Marmol

Carlos Marmol is still an unknown, but he is ridiculously good. Drafters are scared of his wildness: he has a career WHIP of 1.28, which is pretty ugly for a reliever. However, he is effectively wild and that is shown by his career 3.25 ERA (2.98 since becoming the closer for the Cubs). His best asset: in his career he’s averaged 100 Ks per season. As a reliever who pitches about 70-80 innings a season that is unheard of.

3. Heath Bell

Another slightly wild closer, Bell has a career WHIP of 1.20 and a career ERA of 3.16. However, Bell has ridiculous stuff, and over his last two seasons as closer of the Padres he’s averaging 45 saves a season. Bell is built like a bull and pitches with the mentality of one, completely unafraid of hitters. Pitching in spacious PetCo Park also gives him some bonus support, which makes him one of the safest picks for closer in fantasy.

4. Brian Wilson

Wilson is still one who scares me, but he’s obviously a good pick on draft day. He sports a career ERA of 3.18, but a scary career xFIP of 3.51. Last season he was completely dominant, but Sabermetrics have his ERA closer to 3.0 than his monstrous 1.81. His WHIP of 1.30 is also a bad sign. However, Wilson plays on a team with good defense and that’s going to help his numbers. He also came close to 100 Ks last season, which gives him a whole new burst of value. Wilson looks a little risky, but his track record and rising peripherals speak for the reward.

5. Joe Nathan

Yes, I think Joe Nathan is still a top five closer. True, he missed all of last season with Tommy John surgery. However, he has been back this spring and has a fantastic track record. Over his six years as a closer he’s been averaging 41 saves a season, never having less than 36 in a season. He also has a career ERA of 2.75 and a career WHIP of 1.11 (as a closer he’s posted a WHIP higher than 1.0 once, and that was 2007 when it was 1.02). He’s a K machine and plays for a team with great supporting defense. Because of his injury return Nathan slip to the later rounds of drafts, but the upside here is a big as any for a closer.