It's a Menage-a-Trois of Competition

2011 BASEBALL PREVIEW

Part 6: National League West

Projected Standings:

T-1. Colorado Rockies

T-1. Los Angeles Dodgers

T-1. San Francisco Giants

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

5.  San Diego Padres

Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants:

That’s right, I’m calling for a trifecta in the West. These three teams all excel in some ways, and lag in others, making them complement each other competitively. Right now I’m giving the edge to the Rockies, but the last couple of seasons the NL West has been decided down the stretch, and so it didn’t seem fair to pick one team. Instead of a team-by-team breakdown of these three I’m going to profile them all together and give a better in-depth view of their strengths.

Lineup:

In terms of offense the Rockies have the best amongst the three teams. They have a great blend of speed, power, contact, and OBP. They also play at an offense heavy ballpark. Tulo has eclipsed Hanley Ramirez as the best SS in the game. Behind him is Car-Go, who was insane at the plate last season and could be a Triple Crown contender. Ian Stewart has the power to break 25 homers, and I think this is the season he does that. On top of all these great players there’s now talk of the Rockies being in the mix for Michael Young. He’s a very consistent offensive player who could pick up Helton’s slack at first. Colorado also possesses the deepest, and most lethal, bench in the West.

The team with the most to prove offensively has to be the Dodgers. Besides Andre Ethier no one hit for LA last season, and that needs to change. Matt Kemp has a high ceiling, and possesses all five tools (see 2009). I think Kemp let too many things get to his head in ’10, and he’s too good to do that again (I foresee a run at 30-30). Besides that the Dodgers need to find a way to pick up the slack. If James Loney could hit .280-.290 and have a 20-20 season that’d be a big improvement. They also need Blake and Furcal to stay healthy. Without much depth at the minor league system everything needs to go right for the Dodgers

Hopefully the Panda hits Spring this fit

Bringing up the rear are the Giants. We all know Buster Posey by now. His bat is lethal, and with more power he could top Joe Mauer as the best catcher in baseball. Besides that San Fran is hoping all their power comes from Huff, Tejada, and Burrell. All three are on the wrong side of 30. Huff's been known to have spouts of power, but his .216 ISO was far off from his .193 career average (as was his OPS of .891, much higher than his career .821). San Francisco is dragged down by awful contracts (see Zito, Barry and Rowand, Aaron) and a farm system that has not produced hitters. If Pablo Sandoval returns to form, this becomes a different story.. Also, the Giants have a first base prospect, Brandon Belt, who seemed to come out of nowhere last season (1.036 OPS at AA). If he continues to hit and the Giants find a place for him, he could help right the ship.

Pitching

Sorry San Francisco, but it’s hard for me to say that you have the best rotation in the West. With their most recent moves the title has moved south to Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw is a guy who has gotten better every year, and I think he’ll win the Cy Young this year. He finally broke 200 innings, and cut his walks down, while also breaking the 200 K plateau. Behind him is a Chad Billingsley, who is still young, and still has ace stuff. Ted Lilly is a workhorse who's always good for perfect control and good peripherals. Bringing up the rear is Kuroda, and Garland, two guys who aren’t fantastic, but they’ll favor from playing at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium.

In the middle are the Giants. Despite a drop in strikeout rates and a raise in his walk rate Tim Lincecum’s FIP shows that he suffered from bad fielding, and should have had an ERA closer to 3.15. Sticking with FIP, it shows that Matt Cain may have outperformed himself, but he’s still a great number two. The Giants also have rising star Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner suffered from a high WHIP, but based on how well he pitched as a 21 year old there’s a lot to be excited about.  Bringing up the back end is Jonathan Sanchez, who was ridiculously lucky in 2010, and his awful control will catch up with him in 2011. I like the depth the Dodgers have, which is why the Giants are number two, but they still are going to have a great rotation.

Bringing up the rear are the Rockies, but they’re a lot better than people think. To pitch at Coors pitchers have to keep the ball on the ground and out of play. No one does this better than Ubaldo Jimenez. He finally hit his potential last season and his peripherals are perfect for his home park. Behind him are Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin. De La Rosa is an underrated strikeout pitcher who was having a good year before getting hurt. Chacin is a rising star who has great stuff. He’s only 23 and with another season under his belt he can develop into a great number two in Colorado. On the backend is workhorse, veteran, groundball pitcher, Aaron Cook, who when healthy, can put up pretty sufficient numbers.

Overall

In order to finish evaluating these three teams I’m going to go over three other factors: defense, bullpen, and farm systems.

Defense: Order- San Francisco, Colorado, Los Angeles

As far as UZR the Giants had the second best defense in the game. However, their numbers were also supported by Uribe and Renteria, who are now gone. With Sandoval at third their corner’s might suffer, but they still have a great defensive outfield. Meanwhile, the Rockies and Dodgers both stink on defense. Besides Troy Tulowitzki and Car-Go no one in Colorado has great defense. The Dodgers have a pretty good infield, but their outfield is lacking in range. If Matt Kemp can see the ball like he did in ’09 (3.0 UZR in 2009 vs. -24 UZR in 2010) they might stand a better chance.

Step 1 for 2011: Get Huston Street a cup for batting practive

Bullpen: Order- Colorado, Los Angeles, San Francisco

All three of these teams have great closers and set up guys. Brian Wilson and Huston Street are already well known, and Jonathan Broxton is much better than his 2010 season. The Rockies supporting staff is solid and power pitching Matt Lindstrom was a great pickup. The Giants are relying on guys like Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez, which could hurt them. The Dodgers are great in the setup department with Guerrier and Kuo, but lack depth before the 8^th inning.

Farm: Order- Colorado, San Francisco, Los Angeles

The Rockies, a team that could use more pitching, have top prospect Tyler Matzek just waiting to burst into the rotation. He’s a bit like Jimenez, where he’s got a great fastball and is effectively wild. There’s also young backstop Wilin Rosario, whose power is designed for Coors. The Giants have some standouts in the lower levels, but besides Brandon Belt there’s no one who can make an impact this year. The Dodgers have a weak farm that won’t make much impact this season. Their top prospect is Dee Gordon whose specialties are speed and defense. They’ll need more to put them over the top.

All in all I give the edge to the Rockies. They have the best offense, the most farm depth, a good bullpen, and a strong core of starting pitchers. Behind them I put the Giants who have some potential at the plate, three great starters, and a pretty good bullpen. The Dodgers have a lot better pitching than they did last year, but their lack of prospect depth and offense could drag them down this season. I don’t know how this division will end up, but if all three teams stay healthy there could be some great competition.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

Lineup:

Offensively the D-Backs lag behind the Rockies, but they’re probably the second best in the West. They’re young, but they also possess a great blend of speed and power. Their core is built around Chris Young and Justin Upton, who are both 30-30 caliber players. Upton struggled in 2010, after a stunning ‘09 campaign, but he’s still young, possesses all five tools, and there’s no reason he couldn’t excel in 2011. Arizona also has Miguel Montero, who despite injuries, turned in a pretty good offensive season, and he has great potential. They’re weak in the corner infield and left field, but the core is strong enough that they’ll hit enough to win games.

Pitching:

Over the last couple of seasons they’ve lost Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, yet they still have an okay rotation. Joe Saunders is no true ace, but he can at least compile some innings and keep the bullpen healthy (he’s shown upside and might be able to succeed in the NL). They’ve got a lot to like in Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy; both excelled last season. There’s a lot to like in top prospects Tyler Skaggs and Jarrod Parker; I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw them late in the season.

Overall:

Overall the Diamondbacks are still working hard to rebuild. They’ve got a really good core in the rotation and lineup. They’re still very young and learning how to succeed. Arizona has enough farm depth to push them over the top in the next couple seasons, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t holes. The bullpen is awful and the next rebuilding step needs to begin there. The fielding is really strong though and the fundamentals are there. Arizona is hanging tough in the West, but they’ve still got a ways to go.

San Diego Padres:

Overall:

Last year San Diego came out of nowhere, and in the end they faded. Their pitching excelled in PetCo, except they’re now missing Jon Garland, who they’ve replaced with broken Aaron Harang. Offensively they struggled (as expected), and now they’re missing their premier bat in Adrian Gonzalez. Looking at the offense I can see what they’re trying to do. It’s definitely speed heavy; I think the hope is, since PetCo is a pitcher’s park, they’ll win by getting on base and disrupting the paths. The problem is the highest OBP in 2010, among starters not named A-Gon, is Ryan Ludwick with .325. It’s a start, but there’s not enough patience on this team to succeed offensively. The pitching will be overrated (because of PetCo), and maybe it’ll make them look competitive, but over the long run I think they’ll flop.