A Look Inside the AL East

2011 BASEBALL PREVIEW

Part 1: American League East

He's finally arrived

Projected Standings:

1. Boston Red Sox

2. Toronto Blue Jays

T-3. Tampa Bay Rays

T-3. New York Yankees

5.  Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox:

Lineup:

No doubt this was Boston’s most improved area of the off season. They lost a great bat in Victor Martinez (a move I still don’t understand), but they have made up for that by signing Carl Crawford and trading for Adrian Gonzalez. With a healthy Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ellsbury this squad looks to have the best lineup in baseball this year. There’s a great balance of speed and power here and from top-to-bottom this will be a hard lineup every night.

Pitching:

The rotation has great upside for this team and I think Curt Young (newly signed pitching coach, who spent the last six seasons with Oakland) will bring that out. Now that Cliff Lee is out you could make an argument that Lester is the most dominant lefty in the AL. Last season Buchholz came to form; and, despite deviating from his career numbers Lackey was pretty solid as a number four guy. The real test for how good this rotation will be is if Beckett can get back on track. He was working through the kinks near the end of last season and with Young I think he can return to dominance.

Overall:

It should be no surprise that I’ve pegged the Red Sox to be one of the most dominant teams this season (and hopefully you believe that that’s not bias). They have the most improved offense in the game, a solid rotation, and they filled some big holes in the bullpen this year. Most people had low expectations for the Sox last season, and they actually played some great ball, but suffered from major injuries. If they can stay healthy this club will be one of the best. 

Toronto Blue Jays:

Lineup:

They dispatched a horrific contract in Vernon Wells, but came up with two pretty solid bats in Rivera and Napoli (who they then flipped for a good bullpen arm). The Blue Jays had one of the most powerful lineups in baseball last year, but unfortunately things just didn’t come together. Adam Lind saw a huge regression, and Aaron Hill suffered from bad luck big time. However, Travis Snider has some great upside, and Rajai Davis will bring a new element of speed. This could be a really dynamic offense this year and one that’s a lot of fun to watch.

Pitching:

They moved Shaun Marcum, which in the short run could hurt them, but the return was well worth it (Brett Lawrie, a prospect the Brewers said was untouchable). The Jays still have Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, two young aces that really showed some punch last season. According to his FIP Morrow’s ERA should have been closer to 3.16 (instead of a mediocre 4.49) and he posted an unthinkable 10.95 K/9. With a little more sustained control, and better help from the defense, Morrow could become the next big ace in Toronto. Add Kyle Drabek to the group and the Blue Jays have one of the great young rotations in the MLB today.

Overall:

Many people will be surprised with this pick, but I really like what Alex Anthopoulos is doing in Toronto. Since he’s been there it’s been constant wheeling and dealing. Hell, he moved one of the most unmovable contracts in baseball. The rotation is young, but Romero, Morrow, and Drabek can do some big things this season. The offense is high powered and there’s a lot to like. The system is also incredibly deep and there are a lot of guys that can contribute this season. This might be a bold pick, but one that I have faith in.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Lineup:

They weren’t pretty last year and they’ll be even less so this year. They lost Crawford and Pena, and they will try and cover the loss with Damon and Manny (by the way, they plan on playing Damon in the field). Evan Longoria will be the best third baseman in the Majors, Desmond Jennings will make a run at the Rookie of the Year, but the offense is designed to flop. There’s a small balance of power and speed, but the potential for constant strikeouts is huge here. The Rays need to start thinking about moving some pitching depth for a big bat if they hope to compete in the East this year.

Pitching:

When Jeremy Hellickson makes his first start of 2011 everyone will be saying Garza who? True, I like Matt Garza a lot, but Hellickson has a huge future ahead of him, which bodes well for this Rays rotation. David Price had a huge season, and his supporting cast aint to shabby. The Rays still field one of the youngest, yet brightest, rotations in baseball. If they expect to compete the pitching needs to be at full tilt, and the amount of prospects they have will help too. A bounce back year from James Shields could really make this rotation the best in the AL.

Overall:

The Rays suffered big time this year. Their bullpen is torn apart, and they lost their marquee player. However, they still are young and can pull something out of their hats this season. With a lot of farm depth the Rays have a lot of room to make trades or throw some young developing pitchers into the bullpen. They won’t shake the division like they have the last couple of years, but there’s still upside and hope in Tampa.

New York Yankees:

Lineup:

The bats are probably the one thing New York has going for them. Brett Gardner is the Yanks own Ellsbury, except he knows how to draw a walk, and will set the table in New York this year. Cano was a shining light last year; expect more of that. Still, there’s a lot to fear. The age/injury factor is a big one, and 2010 saw it hit Jeter and A-Rod. Do I even need to mention how horrific the DH/Catcher tandem of Posada and Russell Martin is? Cano, Gardner, and the pending emergence of Jeus Montero brings hope of a young core, but right now the declines, injuries, and slow starts are looming over the Bronx heading into Spring Training.

Pitching:

The Yankees had one goal this winter and it was signing Cliff Lee; needless to say they didn’t meet that goal. Then, it was to resign Andy Pettite, and as of today it was announced he plans on retiring. In the end they end up with Bartolo Colon and Rafael Soriano (who they’re paying a lot to pitch the 8^th inning for two years). The bullpen is better, but with Hughes’ second half drop, and Burnett’s struggles, the rotation is a huge concern at this time.

Overall:

Age and depth are a growing concern for this Yankees lineup. Between Jeter, A-Rod, Tex, and Posada is an average age of 35; I can only imagine what happens when we add Pettite, Sabathia, and Rivera into those calculations. This is a team that went 95-67 last year, with the 6^th best ERA in the AL, but that was also with Pettite’s ridiculous 11-3 record and 3.28 ERA (which, based on FIPx, should have been closer to 4). Losing out on Lee really hurt this team, since they were basing their entire off season on that one move. No one should underestimate this squad, but the rest of the division seems too good for them to finish higher than 3^rd.

Baltimore Orioles:

Overall:

To be honest I was pretty disappointed in Baltimore last season, I thought they’d be a lot better than they were. I guess they’re still a team just trying to come together. Brian Matusz was very impressive, in a division considered the toughest in baseball for young pitchers, but the pitching still needs a lot of help. Zach Britton joining Matusz and Guthrie would give the Orioles a pretty solid 1-3, and a sensational building block. Meanwhile the offense needs to step up its game. Nick Markakis is suffering from loss of power, Brian Roberts is slowing down with age, Wieters has been nothing but underwhelming at the major league level, and Adam Jones’ development seems stagnant. Reynolds, Hardy, and Lee could be some big additions, but that’s a big “could.” Further development of Josh Bell would be a huge relief for the Oriole’s hot corner, and who could forget Manny Machado is on his way up (but he has a long ways to go). This is a team with some fantastic pieces, but the development has to happen for them to make the jump back into contention. I’m looking forward to watching the continued progress of the Baltimore rebuild, but I don’t expect anything this year.