2011 BASEBALL PREVIEW
Part 7: Postseason
PLAYOFFS:
(#-#) projected 2011 season record
(#-#) projected record in playoff series
AL STANDINGS:
East- Boston Red Sox (100-62)
Central- Detroit Tigers (95-67)
West- Oakland Athletics (89-73)
Wildcard- Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
ALDS:
1. Boston Red Sox (3-0) vs. Oakland Athletics
2. Detroit Tigers (3-2) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
ALCS:
1. Boston Red Sox (4-1) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Red Sox are deeper in pitching and offense. They also have a lot more experience in the playoffs. The bats will be completely overpowering, and if Lester and Beckett’s track records mean anything, so will the pitching.
NL STANDINGS:
East- Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)
Central- Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)
West- Colorado Rockies (90-72)
Wildcard- Atlanta Braves (92-70)
NLDS:
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3-2) vs. Colorado Rockies
2. Milwaukee Brewers (3-0) vs. Atlanta Braves
NLCS:
1. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers (4-2)
The Phillies only hit .216 in the ALCS last year, and Milwaukee has just as good a front three as San Francisco did. As long as they hit more than Philadelphia there’s no reason they can’t push through to the World Series.
WORLD SERIES:
Boston Red Sox (4-1) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Sox have more experience and a better offense. The rotations are pretty even, but if Beckett can return to offseason form it’d be real hard for the Brewers to beat him. They’ve also got Lester to deal with, who has been spectacular in October. Boston made some great offseason moves, and if healthy there’s no reason to think they’re not frontrunners for another World Title.
AWARDS:
Hitter: (Average/OBP/SLG/Homeruns/Stolen Bases)
Pitcher: (Wins or Saves/ERA/WHIP/Strikeouts)
Manager: (Team: Projected Record)
AMERICAN LEAGUE:
MVP:
1. Adrian Gonzalez (.310/.405/.600/42)
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| "Woohoo! I'm finally in Boston!" |
A-Gon has been a great hitter his entire career, while playing in the best pitchers park in the entire Major Leagues. Over the last five seasons he’s averaged an OPS of .808 with 11 homeruns at home, versus .906 with 21 homers away. Playing in a left-handed haven like Fenway Gonzalez could put up 40-50 bombs with a 1.00+ OPS. He’s also played stellar defense his entire career. He’ll be at the center of a packed Sox lineup, and looking at his away splits he’s got the chance at an amazing season.
2. Miguel Cabrera- he puts up the big offensive numbers, but his lack of defense will hold him back from being the whole MVP package.
3. Evan Longoria- he’s a great 5-tool player, but unless he can support Tampa on his own I don’t think he’ll get enough exposure in 2011.
Cy Young:
1. Felix Hernandez (15/2.45/1.10/240)
King Felix won it last season and there’s no reason to think he can’t repeat. Greinke (’09 winner) and Lee (’08 winner) are both out of the AL, and Felix is looking like the best in the AL again. His biggest struggles will be his teammates. His peripherals are always good, but bad fielding could drag down his ERA and WHIP. Just like last year one has to expect he’ll be lagging in wins. Hernandez is definitely the front-runner, but with a string of bad luck it opens the door for anyone else.
2. Jon Lester- it was tempting to make him number one, but I didn’t want to seem too biased. He gets better every year and can put up big peripherals and wins.
3. Brandon Morrow- pitched great last season, but was hurt by bad luck. If he can stay healthy and post up huge strikeout numbers it’ll be hard to look past him.
Rookie:
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| It's a thing of beauty. |
1. Dustin Ackley (.312/.375/.465/15)
When looking for a ROY it’s all about finding a pitcher with great stuff, or a hitter with a pure swing. Dustin Ackley has one of the purest swings amongst all prospects. He also plays in spacious Safeco Field. With his ability to hit to all fields he could be competing for a batting title in his first season. He also plays good defense, and can hit for some power (probably more away than home). If he breaks with the Mariners out of Spring Training he could have a great first year.
2. Jeremy Hellickson- was nothing but amazing in his first few starts at the major league level. He has great stuff, but being a pitcher there’s always risk involved.
3. Eric Hosmer- profiles a lot like Longoria in 2008. He’s got a lot of power and a great swing, Could make heads turn when he hits The Bigs in 2011.
Manager:
1. Bob Geren (Oakland: 89-73)
Geren has never stood out in Oakland. However, I think the Athletics are flying under the radar this season. If that’s so, and they have a good season, Geren could receive a lot of that credit. He’s got young players and a deep bullpen to manage. If he manages them well, and keeps the offense going, he could stand a great chance at Manager of the Year honors.
2. Jim Leyland (Detroit)- he’s a great manager, and if he leads the Tigers back to the playoffs, hardware could be headed his way.
3. Terry Francona (Boston)- always gets snuffed (especially last year). He’s more a player’s manager, so he doesn’t stick out, but he’ll still be in talks.
National League:
MVP:
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| We call that the "MVP Dance" |
1. Ryan Braun (.315/.370/.575/35)
Braun lost some of his power last season, but he’s too good a player to continue that way. At 27 he’s hitting the prime years, and there’s no reason to believe his offense won’t be off the charts. When healthy he can have a 40-20 season with a high OBP and average. His defense doesn’t turn heads, but his offense is enough to make him a standout. If Milwaukee makes the playoffs Braun will be the leader and that’ll give him great reason to be the MVP.
2. Joey Votto- Votto is the best player in baseball right now. His offensive production is phenomenal, but unless Cincinnati makes the playoffs the exposure isn’t there.
3. Troy Tulowitzki- plays the best defense amongst all shortstops in the NL. He puts up great power numbers, but with the Coors influence he loses confidence.
Cy Young:
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| Que MC Hammer's U Can't Touch This |
1. Clayton Kershaw (18/2.35/1.15/250)
Kershaw has always had a huge ceiling and that’s shown in each of his seasons. Like a certain lefty in the AL he gets better year in and year out. Last season saw him find control of the strike zone and pitch count. Kershaw has electric stuff and could very well lead the league in strikeouts. Hell, he could make a run at the Triple Crown. I love his stuff and that translates into the numbers. He’ll be a standout this season and there’s no reason to think he can’t bring home the award.
*2. Adam Wainwright- it’s amazing he doesn’t have one yet, and barring any injuries he’ll be putting up Triple Crown like numbers, as he does every year.
3. Josh Johnson- he’s got a fantastic pitchers frame and even better stuff. He completely overpowers hitters. With a healthy season he could be unstoppable.
* I wrote this up before the news of Wainwright having TJ surgery, but I respect his abilities and so I’m keeping him on my list.
Rookie:
1. Aroldis Chapman (35/2.80/1.15/100)
Normally I wouldn’t be crazy about giving this to a rookie pitcher who could be a closer in 2011. But, I figure if Neftali Feliz can do it so can the electric arm of Aroldis Chapman. He hits ridiculous velocity, and if he stays healthy he could have some eye-popping numbers in 2011. Chapman could also see spot starts, which will only add to his resume. There’s a lot to like about Chapman, and with all eyes watching him a good season could reap big rewards.
*If you're looking for a picture, go to the NL Central breakdown post and marvel at the radar gun.
2. Freddie Freeman- he’s got a pure swing, and plays good D, but I expect him to top out at .280 with 15-20 homers this season (not enough to standout).
3. Brandon Belt- he put up big numbers in the minors in 2010, and if that translates to the major leagues he’d look real good in a weak lineup.
Managers:
1. Edwin Rodriguez (Florida: 87-75)
Florida has a lot of youth and Rodriguez did pretty well leading them through the second half of the season last year. Just like Oakland, Florida has a lot of pieces, but they’re still flying under the radar. If Rodriguez gets the best out of his players and the Marlins have a good season I think he’ll be a standout in the NL. He could earn bonus points for getting Hanley Ramirez out of the limelight.
2. Fredi Gonzalez (Atlanta)- could lead Atlanta into the playoffs in his first year as manager. If he gets the youth on track he’d be hard to overlook.
3. Ron Roenicke (Milwaukee)- has a lot to work with and a lot of depth. If he pushes this team deep into the playoffs he immediately enters the discussion.