Fantasy Insight: Top 10 Third Baseman

Italicized (number) is projected draft round

1. Evan Longoria- Tampa Bay (1)

2. Ryan Zimmerman- Washington (2)

3. David Wright- New York (2)

4. Kevin Youkilis- Boston (3)

5. Alex Rodriguez- New York (2)

6. Aramis Ramirez- Chicago (9)

7. Jose Bautista- Toronto (5)

8. Adrian Beltre- Texas (5)

9. Casey McGehee- Milwaukee (10)

10. Pablo Sandoval- San Francisco (14)

Sleeper: David Freese- St. Louis

            1. Evan Longoria

Evan Longoria is so good and a first rounder. His potential is massive, and over his first three seasons in the majors he’s averaged 27 homeruns a year. He is still solidifying his swing and last year his average took on a few ticks while his power level decreased a little. He also stole more bases last season. Once he puts everything together Longo could have 40-homer power, while hitting over .300, with 15-20 stolen bases. He plays in an average lineup, but he is so good that he’ll find a way to get over 100 RBIs and 90-100 runs scored. Longoria is too good to pass up in the first round and his potential is incredibly high. He’s like the Joey Votto of third baseman: he came up young with potential and keeps getting better each season. Don’t forget, he’s only 26, meaning that he’s moving into his prime years.

            2. Ryan Zimmerman

Zimmerman is another young third baseman that is making massive strides in the MLB. Looking at his past numbers he can hit .300, he has 30 homerun power, and despite playing in a weak Nationals lineup manages to have 100 runs and RBIs (and that was before Jayson Werth hit the scene). Last season was a real game changer for Zimmerman because he finally added some patience, posting a career high OBP of .388. The biggest worry here is a little injury history, but he’s looked relatively healthy, and is still young and in his prime at 27. Zimmerman could sneak into the first round in some drafts, but if you have the chance don’t let him slip through your fingers in the second round.

            3. David Wright

David Wright used to be a first rounder, but over the last two seasons his career has taken a frightening turn. Wright gained his power back last year, hitting 30 homeruns compared to the 10 in 2009. However, for the third straight year his walk rate fell and for the second straight year his strikeout rate increased. His average also dipped down to .283, far below his .305 career mark. A bad Mets lineup is also hurting his numbers, as Wright went the second year in a row with under 90 runs scored. 2009 was rough on Wright: he had to adjust to hitting in spacious Citi Field, as well as having to recover from taking a Matt Cain fastball to the head. But, before all this, Wright was a 30-20 player who was guaranteed a .300 average and 100 runs/RBIs. He isn’t quite a flyer pick yet, but he is still an elite player at a weak position; and in the second round you could do far worse.

            4. Kevin Youkilis

With the Sox acquiring A-Gon that makes Youk the odd man out and he’ll be moving to the hot corner. This gives Youkilis a lot more limelight, because first base is so deep and third is a much thinner position. Youkilis has a scary style of play. He crowds up about half the plate, and that makes his body look like Rocky Balboa’s been having words with him in a meat locker. In summary: he’s a bit of an injury risk and never played more than 150 games in a season. However, he does a lot in a little amount of time each season. Over his last three seasons he’s averaged to hit .308, with a .404 OBP and 25 homeruns a season. In that same three year span he’s had an average season OPS of .965. Youkilis may miss a couple games here and there from bruises, but he is an offensive threat and remains one of the most undervalued fantasy bargains.

            5. Alex Rodriguez

If third base weren’t so thin A-Rod would probably not break the front five. He used to be elite, but it seems his age and injuries are finally catching up to him. For the third straight year Rodriguez saw a decline in his runs scored, stolen bases, batting average, and slugging percentage. Last year was also the third straight season in which A-Rod hit under 40 homeruns (35 in ’08, 30 in ’09, and 30 in ’10). So with everything that’s going wrong what makes him a top five third baseman? Well, for one his career numbers are ridiculous and since 1996 he’s been one of the games most dangerous hitters. Second, he is still hitting over 30 homers, something not a lot of third baseman can do. Finally, third, he is still playing in New York; the bats around him provide lots of opportunities for RBIs, one stat that hasn’t been too affected by the decline. A-Rod is pushing his late 30s and probably shouldn’t be drafted as high as he will be, but you can still do a lot worse at third.