Plays to Avoid in Your Fantasy Draft

Red denotes serious injury risk, and that that player is one to avoid
Blue denotes that the player has some injury risk, but definite upside and is worth drafting

Injury Risk:

Catcher

Jorge Posada- He will be moving from catcher to DH this season, but all those seasons have worn down his knees and who knows how that will affect his comfort at the plate.

First Base

Kendry Morales- Broke his leg last season and missed a ton of time; is still working back this spring and will start the season on the DL. Upside is huge, but risk is there.

Justin Morneau- Working back from a concussion that made him miss the second half of the 2010 season. Has been getting regular at bats and should be playing at the start of the season. Solid contributor and a good risk to take.

Second Base

Ian Kinsler- Misses a lot of time each season; when healthy he can be a 30-30 player and the best at second. Great draft choice, but don’t pull the trigger too early.

Chase Utley- This is a big one to avoid. Utley had a miserable season last year and dealt all season with a broken hand, is already having knee issues this season, and expected to start the year on the DL. Don’t forget he’s only a couple years past hip surgery.

Shortstop

Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, and Rafael Furcal- All three of these guys are risky. Each has spent a lot of time dealing with various injuries, putting them on-and-off the DL, the last few seasons. Jeter and Furcal are also veterans, and so they bring even more risk.

Troy Tulowitzki- Misses time here and there with strains and pulls, but all-in-all an incredibly safe choice on draft day. Lots of power potential and still plays in Coors, so expect a few issues, but big upside.

Third Base

Aramis Ramirez- Missed quite a bit of time last season. He isn’t young, but he has an incredibly consistent track record. Might not be as dominant as he once was, but worth taking a flyer on in the later rounds.

Outfield

Josh Hamilton- Hamilton has huge upside, but just like Kinsler misses a lot of time each year from various nags and injuries. He has huge upside and is a great pick, but don’t stretch for him in the first round.

Nelson Cruz- Just like his two teammates, Hamilton and Kinsler, Cruz has a bad history of getting banged up throughout the season. Cruz has ridiculous power, but you can’t expect too much with his history.

Curtis Granderson- Granderson has some strains and might miss the start of the season. He had a streaky season and this injury doesn’t add any extra faith.

Grady Sizemore- Sizemore could be a fantasic pick, or a total burn out. He missed practically all of last year with micro fracture knee surgery. Sizemore relies a lot on his legs, and he is expected to finally see some game time in spring soon, but he won’t probably start with the Indians. I peg Sizemore as a big sleeper pick.

Carlos Beltran- Beltran used to be elite, but now he packs big risk. He was hurt most of the season last year and isn’t getting any younger.

Carlos Lee- Just avoid him on draft day; his age and injury history make him nothing, but unnecessary, on draft day.

Magglio Ordonez- He’ll be in the middle of the Tigers lineup and could have a lot of upside; if he is the full time DH (as expected) he could eliminate a lot of the risk.

J.D. Drew- Like Lee, just avoid him. Drew can be streaky and have some hot weeks, but he suffers from injury way too often.

Starting Pitchers

Zach Greinke- Broke a rib playing basketball and will start the season on the DL. No reason to be afraid of Greinke,, and should go in about the 6^th round, but with his injury might slip to you even further.

Jake Peavy- Has a bad injury history and is already suffering from arm issues this spring and might start the season on the DL. Peavy has upside, but looks too risky for draft day.

Adam Wainwright- TJ surgery, do not draft, he won’t pitch this season.

Relief Pitchers

Joe Nathan- Coming back from TJ surgery. He’s looked awful this spring, but his track record speaks for itself. I wouldn’t draft him as your number one closer, but if you can get him in the late rounds as a number two, pull the trigger.

Andrew Bailey- Bailey has such upside, but he has a nasty history of injury. He’s already suffering form some arm issues and it’s yet to be released how bad things actually are. At best I’d say take a late flyer on him with the intentions of benching him until his status gets cleared up.

Age:

Jorge Posada- Catcher/DH

Paul Konerko- 1^st Base

Derek Lee- 1^st Base

Aubrey Huff- 1^st/3^rd/OF

Brian Roberts- 2^nd Base

Chase Utley- 2^nd Base

Derek Jeter- Shortstop

Miguel Tejeda- Shortstop/3^rd

Rafael Furcal- Shortstop

Michael Young- 3^rd Base

Placido Polanco- 3^rd Base

Alex Rodriguez- 3^rd Base

Ichiro Suzuki- Outfield

Raul Ibanez- Outfield

Bobby Abreu- Outfield/DH

Torrii Hunter- Outfield

Magglio Ordonez- Outfield

Ted Lilly- Starting Pitcher

Hiroki Kuroda- Starting Pitcher

Derek Lowe- Starting Pitcher

Carlos Zambrano- Starting Pitcher

Randy Wolf- Starting Pitcher

Joel Pineiro- Starting Pitcher

Chris Carpenter- Starting Pitcher

Too Good to be True:

Elvis Andrus- SS- Andrus provides no power, most likely no average, and moderate steals (about 30); the biggest issue here is he’s going in about the 5^th round and should be drafted more like a 10^th rounder

Adrian Beltre- 3^rd- Has some upside after his strong season in Boston, but don’t forget he has a long history of inconsistency

Jose Bautists- 3^rd- The power is for real, but don’t expect 54 bombs again; draft as a mid-round, high upside, 3^rd baseman

Carlos Gonzalez- OF- Massive 5-tool upside, but no one forget how bad Matt Kemp and Justin Upton rescinded after their breakouts; will probably go in the first round, but should be drafted more like a high upside 2^nd rounder

Gavin Flloyd- SP- Totally inconsistent; will have some good games, but a heck of a lot more awful ones

Clay Buchholz- SP- Boston adds a lot of support, but his 2010, under 3.00, ERA is probably more luck; expect a good season, but normalized numbers.

David Price- SP- Easy 200 inning, 200 K, kind of guy, but the WHIP suggests the ERA had some luck behind it.