Below this is my first take on Opening Day, but now that the LA-SF game is over I thought I'd comment on that. It was of course a pitchers duel with Tim Lincecum matching up against southpaw Clayton Kershaw. Both battled beautifully, aided by the shadows that cascaded from the walls of Dodger Stadium. The game remained 0-0 until some 6th inning mistakes put the Dodgers up by 1, and they never looked back.
The 6th inning was a weird one, with a lot of miscues from the Giants. Buster Posey made a bizarre throw to Pablo Sandoval, hoping to pick off Kemp who had his back turned (but was already back to the bag by the time of the throw). Sandoval missed the throw, allowing Kemp to easily jaunt into home to score the games first run. Before that, it was a throwing error, by Miguel Tejeda, that allowed Kemp to advance to third. In the end the Dodgers needed one more run to seal things up and get there first win, 2-1, of the 2011 season.
Game Notes
Matt Kemp: Kemp looked like a new man after an incredibly disappointing 2010. He had a single, 3 walks, scored both the Dodgers runs, and had a stolen base. It is still just game one, but that's a pretty good line against Tim Lincecum.
San Francisco Miscues: The Giants looked sporadic on defense tonight. Usually a club that is locked down in the field, you could tell they missed the Uribe/Renteria combo at SS. Brandon Belt and Sandoval made some great picks, but Buster Posey seemed to lead a slew of miscues. There were some location mix ups with Lincecum, and then there was the errant throw to third allowing Kemp to score in the 6th.
Brandon Belt: Belt had a good debut, playing some excellent defense at first, and going 1-3 with a walk. Representing the tying run, with two outs in the 9th, his youth came through; but, he put up a great battle. He sliced at his first pitch (an ugly Broxton slider in the dirt), took a ball, hit a foul, took another ball, fouled a slider, barely fouled one back, fouled, and then popped a 98 MPH heater into the glove of Juan Uribe.
Don Mattingly: Everybody had their eyes on how he'd do as a manager, and tonight he got his first win. Congratulations to Donnie Baseball!
Clayton Kershaw: Tonight Kershaw began his march to the Cy Young. He pitched 7 solid innings (96 pitches), putting up a doughnut, with 4 hits, 1 walk, and 9 Ks.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Opening Day Part 1
Today I got to watch the Yankees-Tigers game and coming up in a few I'll be watching the Dodgers-Giants game. The game in New York was a good one today. There were a lot of really good catches in the outfield. I thought Detroit had the upper-hand, based on how good Verlander was this spring. However, his notoriety for slow starts seemed to catch up. He looked pretty good, but it seemed he missed the zone every time he tried to elevate. All in all the Tigers tried to chip away at Sabathia, but in timely homers by Teixeira and Granderson put the lead out of their hands.
Things we Learned:
Kansas City is showcasing: Jered Weaver sliced up the Royal bats today. But, Aaron Crow made his debut out of the 'pen for the Royals, and only needed 19 pitches to go 1.1 perfect innings with 3 strikeouts. Maybe he should have been the opening day starter.
Atlanta is a pretty darn good team too: With all the talk of the Phillies rotation people have forgotten about another really good NL East club. The Braves won 2-0 on a day where Chipper looked healthy, Heyward reminded us, again, as to how good he is, and the Braves pitching dominated. Derek Lowe had a solid start, but the bullpen really took over in the 6th and Craig Kimbrel looked elite in the 9th.
The NL Central is going to be epic: The Brew Crew dominated both sides of the ball, with Yovani Gallardo pitching a solid 6 innings, and first AB homers from Weeks and Gomez, as well as a timely 5th inning bomb by Ryan Braun. However, 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto kept his Reds in the game with a late game bomb, and Ramon Hernandez taught John Axford a lesson with a walkoff blast. I still think Milwaukee's pitching will dominate the division, but boy what a game for Opening Day.
Other Notes
Giants-Dodgers: I've got LA pegged to win tonight's pitching duel. Lincecum is good, but I like Kershaw for NL Cy Young this year, and that means I like him to dominate tonight.
Pujols: Prince Albert had an awful game today going 0-5, hitting into 3 double plays. However, it's Pujols, he'll probably hit 5 bombs in the next game.
Maybin: Maybe the Marlins traded this kid a little too early, since he went 2-5 today with a tying blast in the 9th, and a single up the middle that combined with an error to score the go ahead run in the 11th.
With all these things it was a great opening day and I look forward to the game tonight. It should be a good one!
Things we Learned:
Kansas City is showcasing: Jered Weaver sliced up the Royal bats today. But, Aaron Crow made his debut out of the 'pen for the Royals, and only needed 19 pitches to go 1.1 perfect innings with 3 strikeouts. Maybe he should have been the opening day starter.
Atlanta is a pretty darn good team too: With all the talk of the Phillies rotation people have forgotten about another really good NL East club. The Braves won 2-0 on a day where Chipper looked healthy, Heyward reminded us, again, as to how good he is, and the Braves pitching dominated. Derek Lowe had a solid start, but the bullpen really took over in the 6th and Craig Kimbrel looked elite in the 9th.
The NL Central is going to be epic: The Brew Crew dominated both sides of the ball, with Yovani Gallardo pitching a solid 6 innings, and first AB homers from Weeks and Gomez, as well as a timely 5th inning bomb by Ryan Braun. However, 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto kept his Reds in the game with a late game bomb, and Ramon Hernandez taught John Axford a lesson with a walkoff blast. I still think Milwaukee's pitching will dominate the division, but boy what a game for Opening Day.
Other Notes
Giants-Dodgers: I've got LA pegged to win tonight's pitching duel. Lincecum is good, but I like Kershaw for NL Cy Young this year, and that means I like him to dominate tonight.
Pujols: Prince Albert had an awful game today going 0-5, hitting into 3 double plays. However, it's Pujols, he'll probably hit 5 bombs in the next game.
Maybin: Maybe the Marlins traded this kid a little too early, since he went 2-5 today with a tying blast in the 9th, and a single up the middle that combined with an error to score the go ahead run in the 11th.
With all these things it was a great opening day and I look forward to the game tonight. It should be a good one!
It's the Best Day of the Year!
It's opening day everyone! Woo-hoo! Let the 2011 MLB season begin, and let's all hope it's a great one!
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
On the Final Day of Spring: Spring Headlines
5 Positives
1. Red Sox Starters
Lackey and Buchholz looked great over the spring. They, along with Lester, posted ERAs under 3.0. Daisuke, after tune-ups, looked great down the stretch. Beckett had some real positive games, and some ugly ones. All five Sox starters posted over ten strikeouts, and less than 10 walks. After some tune up games the rotation seemed to settle down and find their comfort zones. The biggest goal for this group was getting to April healthy and they’ve done that. There are still concerns, but for right now they look ready to dominate all season long.
2. The Marlins Bombing Offense
The Marlins young bats were supposed to be good, but right now they look darn right amazing. Mike Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, Omar Infante, Chris Coghlan, and Gaby Sanchez are hitting a combined .408 in spring. Sanchez leads the team in doubles and RBIs with 10 and 11. Even more ridiculous: Mike Stanton is slugging .933. In only 15 ABs he has two bombs and 10 RBIs. If Florida is going to compete their offense will be a key component, and right now they look poised to dominate. The bats break camp optimistic and ready to go.
3. Youngsters on Display
Hype surrounded many young players this spring, and they delivered. As I already mentioned Mike Stanton showed ridiculous power. Even though he only had 18 ABs Bryce Harper hit .389 with an OPS of 1.06. Brandon Belt, the key to San Francisco’s offense, hit .279 with three bombs. Mariner future batting champ Dustin Ackley only hit .269, but he managed to post an OBP of .423 with eight walks. Most impressive was probably Royals top prospect Eric Hosmer hitting two bombs with a .468 average, an OPS of 1.470, while garnering eight RBIs, all in only 20 ABs.
As for pitchers Braves closer Craig Kimbrel was incredibly impressive; in 12.1 innings he had a 2.92 ERA with 15 strikeouts. Orioles top pitching prospect Zach Britton looks poised to take the AL East by storm, going 3-0, in four starts, with a 1.35 ERA. Michael Pineda had a 2.12 ERA in four starts with 15 Ks in 17 innings; imagine how good he’ll look at Safeco. Finally, the Ray everyone has their eyes on, Jeremy Hellickson had a 2.45 ERA with seven Ks in 11 innings.
4. New Look Third Basemen
Last season Pablo Sandoval and Alex Rodriguez disappointed a lot of people. After hitting .330, 25 bombs, and posting an OPS of .943 Sandoval looked awful in 2011, having only 13 bombs, while hitting .268 with an OPS of .732. Last season Rodriguez got off to a terribly slow start, hit only 30 homeruns, stole only four bases, had less than 100 runs, and posted career lows in average and OBP, as well as the second lowest OPS of his career. So far this spring Kung Fu Panda has looked great. He’s slimmed down, he’s hit three homeruns, stolen a surprising two bases, and is actually playing worthwhile defense. Meanwhile, A-Rod has hit .388 with six homeruns this spring. Whether these trends continue into the regular season is unknown, but the Yankees and Giants will both depend on their hot corner men, to continue doing what they’re doing, this year.
5. Confidence in the NL West
When talking about confidence you have to mention the San Francisco Giants, last years World Series winners; however, no one can forget the young Rockies club preparing to steal the division. No one pegged the Giants as being as good as they were last October and they seem ready to surprise again. They have a lot of great personalities on that squad and they want to win. The Rockies are just as hungry for October and have looked great this spring. They started camp off by unveiling their new spring facility (I saw some video/pictures and it looks amazing) and they’ve never looked back. I’m excited for the attitudes of these clubs because both could be so good and competitive and that means we’re in for some exciting baseball down the stretch. Each time these teams meet this season is going to be epic.
5 Concerns
1. Pitching in the NL Central
Going into the season it looked like the NL Central might have some of the best pitching of any division. The Brewers loaded up with Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum, the Cubs acquired Matt Garza, and Adam Wainwright anchored the Cardinals. However, that has now all changed. Greinke is out for a couple weeks with a broken rib, and Marcum has been dealing with mysterious shoulder issues. The heavy attitudes and tempers in Chicago have already blown up, culminating in an Aramis Ramirez Carlos Silva bench scuffle mid-spring and resulting in the release of the latter. Adam Wainwright went down early, and is now set to have Tommy John Surgery; now the Cardinals are dependent on an aging Carpenter and a more than lucky Garcia. Oh, and don’t count out the Reds from all this injury mess, they’re still ran by the young arm destroying dirge that is Dusty Baker. Going into 2011 it looks like the Pirates could have the healthiest rotation (notice, I said healthiest, not best).
2. The Sinking Phils
When I wrote about the NL East I discussed how hitting would be key to Philadelphia’s success. They were eliminated in the NLCS last September because they could only hit .216, and losing Jayson Werth over the winter was not a pick me up. Highly toted rightfield prospect Dominic Brown has already gone down with a broken hand and will miss some time. The biggest concern though is with franchise cornerstone Chase Utley. The athletic, defense minded, beast with a bat, second baseman has struggled all spring with knee issues and will now start the season on the DL. The timetable for his return: unknown. That is about the worst thing that could happen for Philadelphia. Today it was released that Brad Lidge could miss the entire first half of the season because of rotator cuff tendinitis. Things keep getting worse.
3. Andrew Bailey
Oakland has one of the best rotations and bullpens in all of baseball. If they can compete this season it’s going to be because of the pitching. During spring Andrew Bailey went down with an unknown arm ailment. He expects to be back soon, but with his history of injuries who knows. When healthy Bailey can be elite. If Oakland is going to win the west they need their pitchers at full tilt. If Bailey is out they stretch the ‘pen too thin and threaten giving away games. Oakland will be hoping for the best from their young closer, but if he struggles their season could be in jeopardy.
4. The New York Mets
As if they weren’t hurt enough. There’s already a risk with Carlos Beltran and no one is sure when Johan Santana will be back. They’ve recently released Luis Castillo putting them without a proven second baseman. Jason Bay has suffered an injury to his ribs and is now expected to miss the beginning of the season. To top it all off Mets owner, Fred Wilpon, is being sued because of his involvement in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. If Wilpon loses he could lose his stake in the Mets causing some unknown to take over ownership. If the Mets are as bad as everyone expects they could move David Wright and Jose Reyes at the trade deadline, leaving them even more dead in the water.
5. The Lack of Deals
The Cardinals let the Pujols deadline slip by and now questions hang in the air. Will he be a Cardinal for his entire career? This blogger sure hopes so! Pujols might be the best player to ever play in my lifetime, and at his current pace he could hit more than 800 homeruns in his career. A special guy like that deserves to play in the same park for his entire career. Another incomplete deal is Adrian Gonzalez. He’s hit a couple bombs in spring and seems healthy so I would love to see the Sox finally lock him up and give him the contract he deserves (especially before the season starts and his price goes up).
The biggest deal I want to see talked about is the new CBA. With the NFL lockout, and a lockout and possible contraction looming in the NBA, the MLB has been surprisingly quiet on this subject. With all the other sports having issues no one wants to see another MLB strike.
5 Unknowns
1. Will Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan Return to Form?
Morneau is returning from a concussion and Nathan is returning from TJ Surgery. Both are elite players who can have huge results for the Twins this year. If they return to full strength it’d be huge for Minnesota.
2. Can the Yankees Compete?
The rotation is set with Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett, Nova, and Garcia…. yikes! They aren’t getting any younger, though A-Rod has had an impressive spring. They have a lot of talent on this team, it just isn’t as young as they once were, but to compete in their division they’ll have to find a way to fake it.
3. Is Buck Showalter the Next Ozzie Guillen?
I understand Showalter was trying to fire his team up, but his comments about Derek Jeter and Theo Epstein seemed unnecessary. If you hadn’t heard, Showalter said Jeter gets calls because he’s Jeter, and that Epstein couldn’t be as good of a GM as he is if he had the payroll like the Rays have. Whether you agree with him, or not, the comments weren’t warranted and it’ll be interesting to see how he continues to run his mouth during the season.
4. Will Pitching and Defense Dominate?
The theme of focusing on pitching and defense has begun to develop in the MLB and seems to be culminating this season. The Boston Red Sox, Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, and San Francisco Giants are all teams that are sporting pitching heavy teams with superb defense. Most of these teams will look to compete in 2011 and it’ll be interesting to see how the philosophy succeeds.
5. What were the Rangers Thinking?
The Rangers have no ace, that’s a given. They have a pretty good/deep bullpen, that is also a given. They have Neftali Feliz who they’ve decided to keep as their closer. If the Rangers really want to compete in 2011 they need an ace and Feliz could’ve filled that role. Only the season will show how this experiment turns out, but I think not well.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Futures that Couldn't Make the Cut
Tampa Bay Rays
They have had so much success, but they’re still a young club. Right off the bat the payroll kept them off the list. They’re lack of spending prevents them from locking up young studs (though they do have a contract savvy GM, look at the deal they gave Evan Longoria!). I’m also concerned about their lack of offensive prospects. This season leftfield, rightfield, first base, 2nd base, catcher, and shortstop are all question marks for the Rays. They also don’t have any great pieces to cover those positions in the future.
The Rays continue to have a plethora of pitching prospects, and one of the best young rotations in the game. The bullpen is still really weak though and they lost a lot of pieces this offseason. If they trade some of their pitchers for some top notch hitting prospects they could immediately propel into the top five on my rankings.
New York Yankees
As far as payroll goes the Yankees are set. They can eat up any contract in baseball. They’ve also worked to restore some respectability to their farm system. However, they’re a very old club right now. Their core still contains Jeter, Posada, A-Rod, and Rivera. All these guys are locked up for a while and besides Rivera they’re all showing signs of slowing down.
It’s true Jesus Montero and Austin Romine can take over at DH/C in the future; but that leaves the whole left side of the infield to worry about. Teixeira, a master at slow starts, had the worst numbers of his career last season and that too could be a cause for concern in the next couple of seasons.
The biggest factor holding New York back is the rotation. If they had gotten Lee maybe this would be a different conversation. However, they didn’t, and now they have to scrap up some starters. People like Ivan Nova, but the kid is nothing more than a number four pitcher, not the number two/three combo they desperately need. Also, there’s a variable in Sabathia. After this season he can opt out of his contract, and there’s been talk that he’s thinking about it. If that happens and he signs somewhere else the Yankees rotation is dead in the water.
Florida Marlins
As I said in the Atlanta outlook, 10th was a tie between the Braves and this club. I love the prospects in the Florida system. Their lineup is stacked and they have a lot of big offensive pieces. They’re also learning to play defense better and that helps the pitchers. Josh Johnson is an ace, and Ricky Nolasco has had nothing but weird and bad luck in his career, meaning he could still develop into a great number two.
My biggest concerns are the payroll, ownership, and the farm. Florida never spends money, and that could hurt them when it comes to keeping their young studs around. Ownership does nothing to squash Hanley Ramirez’s antics, and his bad attitude could hurt this team. The farm was deep last season, but it’s top prospects have all hit the MLB and left it a little dry moving into the future.
Philadelphia Phillies
People, who know me, and my takes on baseball, know that I’m not a huge fan of the Phillies. But, it has nothing to do with their players or fan base. I don’t like the Phillies because of their management. Ruben Amaro Jr. takes a win now strategy and it’s completely killed the future of the Phillies.
No matter how good their rotation gets they have traded away all their position prospects (except Dominic Brown). The offense is streaky and below average. Injuries to guys like Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez are killing them, and they have a lot of money tied up in players who are already aging and seeing their numbers suffer. The Phillies might be on top for the next couple of seasons, but until they have some young prospects who can hit this team is just going to get older and less competitive.
San Francisco Giants
I like the long-term outlook of the rotation. Lincecum has a little injury risk, but Cain and Bumgarner are young and those three will make noise for a long time. However, the offense is weak, and the contractual obligations are ugly. They still have a lot of years and money owed to Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand, which is turning their ability to spend into sludge.
Also, the offense has some good pieces, but they’re still behind a lot of the league. I love Posey and Sandoval as a core, and boy does Brandon Belt look like he’s got a great future ahead of him. However, besides those three there’s no one that really stands out. If they could acquire one new core piece to the offense it’d be hard to overlook them.
Texas Rangers
Texas has a young team and it was hard to overlook them. The rotation is young and without an ace (which hurts them in the short run), but they have Neftali Feliz and Martin Perez who could fill that role in the long run. The offense has very few holes except maybe at catcher or first base. They also have some great management and I love Nolan Ryan’s initiative.
However, they are one of the most injury prone teams in the league. Their core hitters involve Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Hamilton. These three miss about 20-25 games a year apiece. This holds the offense back and it will only get worse as these players get older. If they can stay healthy the Rangers are easily a top team on the list, but until we see what their rotation and offense can do at full tilt it’s hard to find a place for them.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
The Beginning of the End: The Irwin Classic's Draft
Intro
For those of you who don’t know, I run a fantasy baseball league every year. My plan is to blog about it a little bit as the season runs along. Today was the draft and it was a pretty good one. By far this is the most disgruntled I’ve ever seen people during a draft! There were a lot of player steals and a lot of people getting upset as their picks were swept away.
At the end of the draft I opened up Excel and began doing a little analysis. I have certain formulas I use to project hitter and pitcher value. Hitter value is based on OBP, runs, homeruns, RBIs, and stolen bases; pitcher value is based on W-L record, saves, innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. In the end I pump the numbers into some equation I came up with and some intrinsic value is thrown up. For a hitter 500 is elite, 250-300 is the bottom of the barrel. For pitchers the high value is the same, but the low value only gets to about 350, and there aren’t huge deviations.
So, what I did was find these values for each player on each team. Then I added up the total hitter value and the total pitching value to find who has the best team. You can think of these values as “total season points” if you’re in a head-to-head points league like we are. This gives me an idea of who projects as having the best offense, pitching, and overall team.
The Results
Best Team Overall-
The best overall team came out to be No Yankees Allowed. There is no player that profiles as “elite,” but a lot of high value players all around. He definitely got a steal with Zach Greinke in the 11th round. It seemed everyone was afraid to touch the mildly injured ace, and No Yankees Allowed snatched him up. Greinke is only expected to miss a couple starts and I’m incredibly surprised he fell this far. He also has a couple high risk, high reward, picks with Joe Nathan and Matt Kemp. If both can come close to their 2009 season totals it’d be huge.
The biggest issue for No Yankees Allowed is his rotation. While his top three look great, his number four guy (Brett Anderson) could be a key to success. If he’s healthy this rotation could be amazing, but if he can’t pitch very many games it’ll hurt.
Here’s the overall roster for No Yankees with the draft round in ():
C- Kurt Suzuki (10)
1B- Ryan Howard (2)
2B- Brandon Phillips (8)
SS- Troy Tulowitzki (1)
3B- Jose Bautista (4)
OF- Matt Kemp (5)
OF- Nelson Cruz (7)
OF- Hunter Pence (12)
UT- Aramis Ramirez (16)
SP- Ubaldo Jimenez (3)
SP- Zach Greinke (11)
SP- Roy Oswalt (6)
SP- Brett Anderson (9)
SP- Gio Gonzalez (13)
RP- Chris Perez (15)
RP- Joe Nathan (14)
The total offensive value came out to 2898.86, the total pitching value came out to 2815.62, and that brings the total overall value to 5714.49 points. The closest runner up is Let’s Go Red Sox at 5620.95, and rounding out the top three is The Teammates at 5546.59 points.
Best Rated Offense-
Overall, the best-rated offense also belongs to No Yankees Allowed. There are three big boppers in Howard, Tulo, and Bautista; and, if Matt Kemp returns to stud form and Nelson Cruz stays healthy this could be a real good outfield. The weakest position is catcher, but Kurt Suzuki has 20 homer/.280 average upside, which is pretty standard for a good catcher.
For a list of No Yankees Allowed’s offense look right above you. The average line for one of his hitters, based off projections, is:
.349 OBP, 87 runs, 27 HR, 93 RBIs, 11 SB, 396.64 total value per bat
Best Rated Pitching-
When it comes to pitching value my team, The Teammates, was rated the best. I front-loaded my rotation, taking a pitcher in the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th rounds. I then took some high upside picks in the later rounds. Personally, I think I have the two Cy Young winners for this season (King Felix and Kershaw) and that makes me ecstatic. I really wanted Francisco Liriano as my number three guy, but he went a round sooner than I thought he would (I figured he’d be a steal and someone else thought the same way). I’m not crazy about David Price, but he’s pretty much guaranteed 200 innings and 200 Ks and I wanted three of those guys so I’m happy. The list of my rotation and relief corps is below.
SP1- Felix Hernandez (2)
SP2- Clayton Kershaw (3)
SP3- David Price (6)
SP4- Daniel Hudson (12)
SP5- Brandon Morrow (11)
SP5- Brandon Morrow (11)
RP1- John Axford (14)
RP2- Craig Kimbrel (16)
The average line for one of my pitchers, based off projections, is:
15-8, 37 saves, 208 IP, 203 K, 3.0 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 400.49 total value per pitcher
Best Rated Relief Corp-
Fantasy players love to debate the value of saves, so I thought I’d also look into whose closers profiled as the best. This one was obvious: it’s Grizzly Neimann. He has Joakim Soria (the best AL reliever) and Heath Bell (arguably the best NL reliever) as his closers. If Grizzly can propel past the rest of us this closing duo could be a big factor. Here are the three stat averages for his relievers:
43 saves, 81 Ks, 1.10 WHIP,
Best Rated Outfield-
Just for the heck of it I thought I’d also search out who has the best outfield. Outfield is always a loaded position, but I think people take for granted just how good the best outfielders really are. The best outfield belongs to dembums. Second rounder Carlos Gonzalez leads this trio of outfielders. His second outfielder is Dodgers big bopper Andre Ethier, and bringing up the rear is upside pick Just Upton. Things get even scarier considering he has high upside pick Grady Sizemore as a possible UT/bench guy. The average line for this outfield is:
.360 OBP, 94 runs, 29 homeruns, 93 RBIs, 16 stolen bases, 420.48 total value per outfielder
Final Words
All in all everyone has a different team and this is anyone’s game. The draft helps you build a base, but it’s the moves you make throughout the season that determines who wins. All our teams have different strengths and weaknesses, and all my calculations are based off projections; projections are never 100% right, and between injuries and breakout seasons who knows what will happen. All I know is it was a great draft and I’m definitely looking forward to seeing where the season goes from here!
Top Three Steals of the Draft
1. Chase Utley- Beaches- 5th round
2. Zach Greinke- No Yankees Allowed- 11th round
3. J.J. Putz- Nesbutts- 15th round
4. Grady Sizemore- dembums- 18th round
5. Vladimir Guerrero- The Teammates- 19th round
Biggest Shock of the Draft
My buddy Kevin, aka Yankee Pankee, a life long Yankees fan, drafting Yankee killer Joe Mauer, Philadelphia playoff rival Cole Hamels, and Sox David Ortiz and Clay Buchholz.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Plays to Avoid in Your Fantasy Draft
Red denotes serious injury risk, and that that player is one to avoid
Blue denotes that the player has some injury risk, but definite upside and is worth drafting
Injury Risk:
Blue denotes that the player has some injury risk, but definite upside and is worth drafting
Injury Risk:
Catcher
Jorge Posada- He will be moving from catcher to DH this season, but all those seasons have worn down his knees and who knows how that will affect his comfort at the plate.
First Base
Kendry Morales- Broke his leg last season and missed a ton of time; is still working back this spring and will start the season on the DL. Upside is huge, but risk is there.
Justin Morneau- Working back from a concussion that made him miss the second half of the 2010 season. Has been getting regular at bats and should be playing at the start of the season. Solid contributor and a good risk to take.
Second Base
Ian Kinsler- Misses a lot of time each season; when healthy he can be a 30-30 player and the best at second. Great draft choice, but don’t pull the trigger too early.
Chase Utley- This is a big one to avoid. Utley had a miserable season last year and dealt all season with a broken hand, is already having knee issues this season, and expected to start the year on the DL. Don’t forget he’s only a couple years past hip surgery.
Shortstop
Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, and Rafael Furcal- All three of these guys are risky. Each has spent a lot of time dealing with various injuries, putting them on-and-off the DL, the last few seasons. Jeter and Furcal are also veterans, and so they bring even more risk.
Troy Tulowitzki- Misses time here and there with strains and pulls, but all-in-all an incredibly safe choice on draft day. Lots of power potential and still plays in Coors, so expect a few issues, but big upside.
Third Base
Aramis Ramirez- Missed quite a bit of time last season. He isn’t young, but he has an incredibly consistent track record. Might not be as dominant as he once was, but worth taking a flyer on in the later rounds.
Outfield
Josh Hamilton- Hamilton has huge upside, but just like Kinsler misses a lot of time each year from various nags and injuries. He has huge upside and is a great pick, but don’t stretch for him in the first round.
Nelson Cruz- Just like his two teammates, Hamilton and Kinsler, Cruz has a bad history of getting banged up throughout the season. Cruz has ridiculous power, but you can’t expect too much with his history.
Curtis Granderson- Granderson has some strains and might miss the start of the season. He had a streaky season and this injury doesn’t add any extra faith.
Grady Sizemore- Sizemore could be a fantasic pick, or a total burn out. He missed practically all of last year with micro fracture knee surgery. Sizemore relies a lot on his legs, and he is expected to finally see some game time in spring soon, but he won’t probably start with the Indians. I peg Sizemore as a big sleeper pick.
Carlos Beltran- Beltran used to be elite, but now he packs big risk. He was hurt most of the season last year and isn’t getting any younger.
Carlos Lee- Just avoid him on draft day; his age and injury history make him nothing, but unnecessary, on draft day.
Magglio Ordonez- He’ll be in the middle of the Tigers lineup and could have a lot of upside; if he is the full time DH (as expected) he could eliminate a lot of the risk.
J.D. Drew- Like Lee, just avoid him. Drew can be streaky and have some hot weeks, but he suffers from injury way too often.
Starting Pitchers
Zach Greinke- Broke a rib playing basketball and will start the season on the DL. No reason to be afraid of Greinke,, and should go in about the 6th round, but with his injury might slip to you even further.
Jake Peavy- Has a bad injury history and is already suffering from arm issues this spring and might start the season on the DL. Peavy has upside, but looks too risky for draft day.
Adam Wainwright- TJ surgery, do not draft, he won’t pitch this season.
Relief Pitchers
Joe Nathan- Coming back from TJ surgery. He’s looked awful this spring, but his track record speaks for itself. I wouldn’t draft him as your number one closer, but if you can get him in the late rounds as a number two, pull the trigger.
Andrew Bailey- Bailey has such upside, but he has a nasty history of injury. He’s already suffering form some arm issues and it’s yet to be released how bad things actually are. At best I’d say take a late flyer on him with the intentions of benching him until his status gets cleared up.
Age:
Jorge Posada- Catcher/DH
Paul Konerko- 1st Base
Derek Lee- 1st Base
Aubrey Huff- 1st/3rd/OF
Brian Roberts- 2nd Base
Chase Utley- 2nd Base
Derek Jeter- Shortstop
Miguel Tejeda- Shortstop/3rd
Rafael Furcal- Shortstop
Michael Young- 3rd Base
Placido Polanco- 3rd Base
Alex Rodriguez- 3rd Base
Ichiro Suzuki- Outfield
Raul Ibanez- Outfield
Bobby Abreu- Outfield/DH
Torrii Hunter- Outfield
Magglio Ordonez- Outfield
Ted Lilly- Starting Pitcher
Hiroki Kuroda- Starting Pitcher
Derek Lowe- Starting Pitcher
Carlos Zambrano- Starting Pitcher
Randy Wolf- Starting Pitcher
Joel Pineiro- Starting Pitcher
Chris Carpenter- Starting Pitcher
Too Good to be True:
Elvis Andrus- SS- Andrus provides no power, most likely no average, and moderate steals (about 30); the biggest issue here is he’s going in about the 5th round and should be drafted more like a 10th rounder
Adrian Beltre- 3rd- Has some upside after his strong season in Boston, but don’t forget he has a long history of inconsistency
Jose Bautists- 3rd- The power is for real, but don’t expect 54 bombs again; draft as a mid-round, high upside, 3rd baseman
Carlos Gonzalez- OF- Massive 5-tool upside, but no one forget how bad Matt Kemp and Justin Upton rescinded after their breakouts; will probably go in the first round, but should be drafted more like a high upside 2nd rounder
Gavin Flloyd- SP- Totally inconsistent; will have some good games, but a heck of a lot more awful ones
Clay Buchholz- SP- Boston adds a lot of support, but his 2010, under 3.00, ERA is probably more luck; expect a good season, but normalized numbers.
David Price- SP- Easy 200 inning, 200 K, kind of guy, but the WHIP suggests the ERA had some luck behind it.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Fantasy Insight: Top 10 Closers
Italicized (number) is projected draft round
1. Joakim Soria- Kansas City (6)
2. Carlos Marmol- Chicago (8)
3. Heath Bell- San Diego (5)
4. Brian Wilson- San Francisco (5)
5. Joe Nathan- Minnesota (10)
6a. Neftali Feliz* (7)
6. Mariano River (8)
7. Huston Street (13)
8. John Axford (15)
9. Andrew Bailey (16)
10. Jonathan Papelbon (9)
*Texas is currently reworking Feliz back in as a starter, and they will decide this weekend whether to keep him in the rotation or the bullpen.
Sleeper: Craig Kimbrel
1. Joakim Soria
Soria is constantly overlooked because he closes for the Royals, but his stats are ridiculously elite. He has a career WHIP of 0.99 and a career ERA of 2.01. Over his last three seasons he’s averaged 38 saves a season. He’s also a strikeout closer so you get extra points from his guaranteed 65-75 Ks a season. Look at his situation this way: Kansas wins so rarely, that when they are winning they’re going to go to Soria, and he’ll be fresh and ready to dominate the 9th.
2. Carlos Marmol
Carlos Marmol is still an unknown, but he is ridiculously good. Drafters are scared of his wildness: he has a career WHIP of 1.28, which is pretty ugly for a reliever. However, he is effectively wild and that is shown by his career 3.25 ERA (2.98 since becoming the closer for the Cubs). His best asset: in his career he’s averaged 100 Ks per season. As a reliever who pitches about 70-80 innings a season that is unheard of.
3. Heath Bell
Another slightly wild closer, Bell has a career WHIP of 1.20 and a career ERA of 3.16. However, Bell has ridiculous stuff, and over his last two seasons as closer of the Padres he’s averaging 45 saves a season. Bell is built like a bull and pitches with the mentality of one, completely unafraid of hitters. Pitching in spacious PetCo Park also gives him some bonus support, which makes him one of the safest picks for closer in fantasy.
4. Brian Wilson
Wilson is still one who scares me, but he’s obviously a good pick on draft day. He sports a career ERA of 3.18, but a scary career xFIP of 3.51. Last season he was completely dominant, but Sabermetrics have his ERA closer to 3.0 than his monstrous 1.81. His WHIP of 1.30 is also a bad sign. However, Wilson plays on a team with good defense and that’s going to help his numbers. He also came close to 100 Ks last season, which gives him a whole new burst of value. Wilson looks a little risky, but his track record and rising peripherals speak for the reward.
5. Joe Nathan
Yes, I think Joe Nathan is still a top five closer. True, he missed all of last season with Tommy John surgery. However, he has been back this spring and has a fantastic track record. Over his six years as a closer he’s been averaging 41 saves a season, never having less than 36 in a season. He also has a career ERA of 2.75 and a career WHIP of 1.11 (as a closer he’s posted a WHIP higher than 1.0 once, and that was 2007 when it was 1.02). He’s a K machine and plays for a team with great supporting defense. Because of his injury return Nathan slip to the later rounds of drafts, but the upside here is a big as any for a closer.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Fantasy Insight: Top 15 Outfielders
Italicized (number) is projected draft round
1. Ryan Braun- Milwaukee (1)
2. Carl Crawford- Boston (2)
3. Carlos Gonzalez- Colorado (1)
4. Josh Hamilton- Texas (2)
5. Matt Holliday- St. Louis (3)
6. Matt Kemp- Los Angeles (5)
7. Shin-Soo Choo- Cleveland (4)
8. Nelson Cruz- Texas (3)
9. Justin Upton- Arizona (4)
10. Andre Ethier- Los Angeles (4)
11. Jayson Werth- Washington (5)
12.Jason Heyward- Atlanta (6)
13. Andrew McCutchen- Pittsburgh (5)
14. Jay Bruce- Cincinnati (10)
15. Mike Stanton- Florida (13)
1. Ryan Braun
Braun has been the model of consistency in leftfield, and after his first year in the league he became an immediate first rounder. His power ceiling is huge; he hits for power, creates scoring opportunities, and steals about 15-20 bases a season. The overall power has been a little inconsistent; his ISO in 2007 was .310, and it’s decreased each season since. Last season was the first that he’s hit under 30 homeruns. However, Braun might just have had a weird season. He’s always had a lot of power and never shown any signs of losing it. You could do a lot worse with a first round pick than Braun. With him you’re getting a 30-15 player who will hit .300 and have 100 RBIs and runs, in that big Milwaukee lineup, easily.
2. Carl Crawford
Crawford is the most athletic outfielder on this list. Not only are his stats great, but he also possesses a fantastic baseball IQ. His steals aren’t in the 60s anymore, but that’s because he prefers to sometimes just wait on the base and scare the opposing pitchers into making mistakes. He owns a .296 career batting average and his power has grown throughout his entire career. If he’s at the top of the Boston order he’ll easily rack up 100 runs, but if he’s in the middle he could also get a lot of RBI opportunities. He’s a shoe in for at least 40 steals, 15-20 homeruns, 100 runs, and 70-100 RBIs. He’ll be a first round pick in some drafts and he’d be a great anchor for any fantasy team.
3. Carlos Gonzalez
In his first full season in the league Car-Go became a possible triple crown candidate. His splits do show a lot of favor from playing in Coors, but his production in Coors is enough to make his numbers elite. Last year Gonzalez hit 34 homers with 26 stolen bases, all while dealing with injuries throughout the entire year. If he can stay healthy, he could have a 40-30 season with an average well above .300. With Car-Go there’s a bit of an injury risk, and there’s a bit of a regression risk, but for right now I say let the good times roll because the reward could be greater than last year.
4. Josh Hamilton
We all know Hamilton’s story by now, and we also all know how good he is. With him, you’re getting a .300 average, 30 homeruns, and a lot of RBIs and runs because of that ridiculous lineup he plays in in Texas. However, you also know you’re going to get a lot of missed time all season. Before getting clean and fixing his baseball career, Hamilton was leading a rough life of drug use and that’s taken a toll on his body; that toll translates into a lot of missed time throughout the season. That’s why I’d beware drafting Hamilton in the first round, but his consistency and skills warrant a 2nd or 3rd round pick for sure. If he could somehow stay healthy (highly unlikely) he could push the 40 homerun plateau.
5. Matt Holliday
Since moving to St. Louis Holliday has been a little lost in the noise that is Albert Pujols. However, that can only favor you on draft day because that means others will be overlooking one of the best outfielders in the draft. Critics always thought Holliday could not survive outside of Coors, but they were wrong. True, his power has rescinded a bit, but last year he hit 28 homers showing he could return to the 30 homerun power that made him a first round pick. He’s still an average and OBP beast, as shown by his .317 career average and .388 career OBP. He’s definitely gotten slower; his stolen bases have dropped from 28 in ’08 to 9 in ’10. But, his power, average, and RBIs/runs (provided by a great heart of the order in St. Louis) make him a great underrated outfielder that you could steal in your draft.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
For all the Marbles, Future #1: The Colorado Rockies
Why they're ranked first:
I think the Rockies are built to have a promising future. Let's start with the basics: good management. Jim Tracy has done a lot to stabilize the club in his short time as manager; meanwhile, Dan O'Dowd continues to thrive as GM, running fantastic drafts and building/keeping intact a young core. The lineup isn't elite, but they've got a great blend of speed/power while keeping up with fundamentals like defense and patience. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are probably the best 3-4 in all of baseball. Tulo brings unheard of power at shortstop, and Gonzalez is a do-it-all kind of hitter; also, both play Gold Glove caliber defense, and both were extended seven years this offseason. Ubaldo Jimenez exudes ace and is built for Coors, and Colorado is building a great supporting staff around him. Jhoulys Chacin is going to grow into a good pitcher, and, 2009 first-rounder, Tyler Matzek has the highest ceiling amongst Rockies pitchers (he might take over as ace someday). The Rockies have great management, a very young/elite core (many of whom are locked up for a long time), and a semi-stacked farm system, with higher level talent ready to make an impact. Overall their club is as easy going and talented as they come. The future is bright for the Colorado Rockies and they're going to start showing it off very soon.
TEAM: Colorado Rockies
 |
| Tulo extended 7 years as well as... |
LEAGUE: National League
DIVISION: West
DIVISION: West
Top Pitching Prospect: Tyler Matzek
Top Hitting Prospect: Wilin Rosario
Marquee Player: Troy Tulowitzki
Future Lineup
Lineup Number. Name: Position, Bats- Best Tools
1. Eric Young Jr.: 2B, S- Speed
2. Nolan Arenado: 3B, RH- Contact
3. Troy Tulowitzki: SS, RH- 5-tools
 |
| ...Car-Go headline the Rockies core |
4. Carlos Gonzalez: RF, LH- 5-tools
5. Wilin Rosario: C, RH- Power/Defense
6. Ian Stewart: 1B, LH- Power
7. Kyle Parker: LF, RH- Power/Patience
8. Dexter Fowler: CF, S- Speed/Defense
Future Rotation
Name, Throws
1. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
2. Tyler Matzek, LHP
3. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
4. Christian Friedrich, LHP
5. Jorge De La Rosa, LHP
Closer: Huston Street
Overall Evaluation
Areas of Improvement:
There’s not much to dislike on this team. The lineup is a little right-handed heavy, and that forces a split up between the two fastest players (Fowler and Young), when they should be hitting one and two. Huston Street is a great closer for the long run, but it wouldn’t hurt to find some more young arms.
Outfield:
Carlos Gonzalez emerged as a great 5-tool player last year and his bat is epic. He plays center and right equally well, hits for average with big power, and his pure athleticism brings out great speed. Dexter Fowler plays very good defense while disrupting the base paths, but he needs to be able to get on base a little more if he wants to be a great leadoff man.
Infield:
Troy Tulowitzki has emerged as the best shortstop in baseball, not just because of his powerful bat, but also because of his amazing glove. Eric Young Jr.’s athleticism brings versatility and speed, and Ian Stewart is on the verge of a power breakout. The Rockies have a balanced infield, with each player bringing good fundamentals and a different aspect of offense.
Rotation:
 |
| Effectively Wild: Ubaldo Jimenez |
Ubaldo Jimenez and Tyler Matzek are two effectively wild pitchers who have huge ceilings. Jimenez has already reached his, and Matzek should be up soon ready to do the same. Jhoulys Chacin is a solid number three, who could have ace stuff, and will also rack up strikeouts.
 |
| Matzek has big potential |
Intangibles:
The Rockies are built to play in Coors Field. The offense is power heavy and can put up a lot of runs. The pitching is designed to strikeout the opposition, as well as keep the ball on the ground (which will keep it out of the air). However, just because the Coors influence is there, doesn’t hurt the team. That just means the hitters and pitchers will offset each other on the road.
Colorado also spent the offseason preparing for the future. They locked up Car-Go (7 years) and Tulo (7 more years), while Jimenez is signed through 2014 and Street through 2013. They have a great young core that is locked up, and with all their talent they’ll stay young for a long time.
There’s also great management in the Mile High City. Jim Tracy has done a phenomenal job since taking over in ’09. Dan O’Dowd has done just as good a job in the front office, drafting great players and making all the right moves. One of his best moves has to be trading Matt Holliday for Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street; how good does that deal look now?
Monday, March 21, 2011
Fantasy Insight: Top 10 Third Baseman
Italicized (number) is projected draft round
1. Evan Longoria- Tampa Bay (1)
2. Ryan Zimmerman- Washington (2)
3. David Wright- New York (2)
4. Kevin Youkilis- Boston (3)
5. Alex Rodriguez- New York (2)
6. Aramis Ramirez- Chicago (9)
7. Jose Bautista- Toronto (5)
8. Adrian Beltre- Texas (5)
9. Casey McGehee- Milwaukee (10)
10. Pablo Sandoval- San Francisco (14)
Sleeper: David Freese- St. Louis
1. Evan Longoria
Evan Longoria is so good and a first rounder. His potential is massive, and over his first three seasons in the majors he’s averaged 27 homeruns a year. He is still solidifying his swing and last year his average took on a few ticks while his power level decreased a little. He also stole more bases last season. Once he puts everything together Longo could have 40-homer power, while hitting over .300, with 15-20 stolen bases. He plays in an average lineup, but he is so good that he’ll find a way to get over 100 RBIs and 90-100 runs scored. Longoria is too good to pass up in the first round and his potential is incredibly high. He’s like the Joey Votto of third baseman: he came up young with potential and keeps getting better each season. Don’t forget, he’s only 26, meaning that he’s moving into his prime years.
2. Ryan Zimmerman
Zimmerman is another young third baseman that is making massive strides in the MLB. Looking at his past numbers he can hit .300, he has 30 homerun power, and despite playing in a weak Nationals lineup manages to have 100 runs and RBIs (and that was before Jayson Werth hit the scene). Last season was a real game changer for Zimmerman because he finally added some patience, posting a career high OBP of .388. The biggest worry here is a little injury history, but he’s looked relatively healthy, and is still young and in his prime at 27. Zimmerman could sneak into the first round in some drafts, but if you have the chance don’t let him slip through your fingers in the second round.
3. David Wright
David Wright used to be a first rounder, but over the last two seasons his career has taken a frightening turn. Wright gained his power back last year, hitting 30 homeruns compared to the 10 in 2009. However, for the third straight year his walk rate fell and for the second straight year his strikeout rate increased. His average also dipped down to .283, far below his .305 career mark. A bad Mets lineup is also hurting his numbers, as Wright went the second year in a row with under 90 runs scored. 2009 was rough on Wright: he had to adjust to hitting in spacious Citi Field, as well as having to recover from taking a Matt Cain fastball to the head. But, before all this, Wright was a 30-20 player who was guaranteed a .300 average and 100 runs/RBIs. He isn’t quite a flyer pick yet, but he is still an elite player at a weak position; and in the second round you could do far worse.
4. Kevin Youkilis
With the Sox acquiring A-Gon that makes Youk the odd man out and he’ll be moving to the hot corner. This gives Youkilis a lot more limelight, because first base is so deep and third is a much thinner position. Youkilis has a scary style of play. He crowds up about half the plate, and that makes his body look like Rocky Balboa’s been having words with him in a meat locker. In summary: he’s a bit of an injury risk and never played more than 150 games in a season. However, he does a lot in a little amount of time each season. Over his last three seasons he’s averaged to hit .308, with a .404 OBP and 25 homeruns a season. In that same three year span he’s had an average season OPS of .965. Youkilis may miss a couple games here and there from bruises, but he is an offensive threat and remains one of the most undervalued fantasy bargains.
5. Alex Rodriguez
If third base weren’t so thin A-Rod would probably not break the front five. He used to be elite, but it seems his age and injuries are finally catching up to him. For the third straight year Rodriguez saw a decline in his runs scored, stolen bases, batting average, and slugging percentage. Last year was also the third straight season in which A-Rod hit under 40 homeruns (35 in ’08, 30 in ’09, and 30 in ’10). So with everything that’s going wrong what makes him a top five third baseman? Well, for one his career numbers are ridiculous and since 1996 he’s been one of the games most dangerous hitters. Second, he is still hitting over 30 homers, something not a lot of third baseman can do. Finally, third, he is still playing in New York; the bats around him provide lots of opportunities for RBIs, one stat that hasn’t been too affected by the decline. A-Rod is pushing his late 30s and probably shouldn’t be drafted as high as he will be, but you can still do a lot worse at third.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Fantasy Insight: Top 10 Shortstops
Italicized (number) is projected draft round
1. Hanley Ramirez- Florida (1)
2. Troy Tulowitzki- Colorado (1)
3. Jose Reyes- New York (2)
4. Alexei Ramirez- Chicago (8)
5. Elvis Andrus- Texas (5)
6. Derek Jeter- New York (5)
7. Jimmy Rollins- Philadelphia (4)
8. Stephen Drew- Arizona (11)
9. Yunel Escobar- Toronto (18)
10. Starlin Castro- Chicago (15)
Sleeper: Asdrubal Cabrera OR Tsoyoshi Nishioka
1. Hanley Ramirez
I’ll just let the numbers speak for themselves: .313 career average; .385 career OBP; .520 career SLG; .905 career OPS; averages of 24 homeruns, 39 bags, 112 runs, and 77 RBIS over his five seasons in the league. No other shortstop has numbers like that, and most other players don’t have numbers like that. The biggest issue with Hanley is the attitude. Last season was the ball-kicking incident, and he saw a big drop in runs and RBIs from the season before. Whether that was a lack of effort or not has yet to be determined, but Ramirez has Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria wrapped around his finger and that could be very bad (could this be the second coming of Manny Ramirez!?). However, the Marlins look revamped this season with a better bullpen and a young powerhouse offense, so hopefully a little hope can inspire Hanley to go all out.
2. Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo is a beast at short, and if this wasn’t a fantasy ranking he would be the number one shortstop (unfortunately, for him, superior defense doesn’t count in fantasy). The Rockies vacuum broke out in his ’07 rookie year where he had 24 homeruns, 104 runs, and 99 RBIs. He bats in the middle of a strong Rockies lineup and plays half his games at hitter friendly Coors. 2009 was by far his best year where he hit 32 bombs with 20 bags. So, we know what kind of potential to expect from him. Tulo’s biggest issue is the injury bug. It’s a mixed bag with him; in ’07 and ’09 he played in over 150 games, but in ’08 he only saw 101 games and last year he appeared in only 122. But, oh the potential!
3. Jose Reyes
One of the only worthwhile Mets. Reyes’ wheels aren’t as good as they once were, but you could still do far worse at shortstop. Between ’05 and ’08 Reyes was averaging 64 stolen bases a season. Then 2009 came and injury caused Reyes to miss all but 36 games. Last season he fought back and in 133 games hit 11 bombs with 30 stolen bases. Reyes was once an elite shortstop, but worries about his legs have caused him to slow down a bit and the numbers have suffered. However, when compared to other risky shortstops like Rollins and Jeter, Reyes looks elite. If he can continue to stay healthy he could easily return to his 190-200 hits, 15 homeruns, 60 stolen bases form. However, you have to be careful as a drafter, because all of Reyes’ potential comes from his legs, so once they go so does his value.
4. Alexei Ramirez
Ramirez is pretty undervalued and underrated, and that could provide you with a late round steal in your draft. He’s able to do just a little bit of everything. Over his three seasons he’s averaged 18 homeruns and 13 stolen bases. His average is just that, average, and his walk rate is pretty putrid. But, he has a rare combo of power and speed at short, and that is a lot harder to come by once you get past the top three. Ramirez also plays in a pretty good ChiSox lineup, so he manages to score runs and get moderate RBI numbers. Ramirez is a little behind the pack as far as age goes (he’ll be 30 this season), but he’s been healthy his career and with 20-15 potential at short he could be a huge boost to your team.
5. Elvis Andrus
Just like Tulo, Andrus derives a lot of his value from his ridiculous defensive proficiency. But, since this is fantasy, Andrus’ value is coming from his steals. He’s managed to average 32 over his two seasons in the Bigs. However, there’s plenty to be worried about. Andrus was never a fantastic hitter, and he’s only averaged to hit .266 over his two seasons in the majors. He did manage to hit .300 and .295 over his final two minor league seasons. Also, when it comes to power you don’t think Andrus. In 2009 he managed to hit six homeruns, but last season he had a total of only 18 extra base hits (0 bombs). Andrus could gain a lot more fantasy appeal if he could rack up some more hits and power to go with his steals, but for right now there isn’t a world’s worth of appeal.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Future #2: The Cincinnati Reds
Why they're ranked second:
The Big Red Machine was once one of the most revered franchises in all of baseball; and, it looks like it's second coming is right around the corner. The Reds first flashed their potential last year, winning the NL Central, and it won't stop there. They rotation has a ridiculous amount of potential. The offense was the MLB's most powerful last season, and they have the resources to hold that title for a long time. They're young, they're explosive, and they're going to be real good.
TEAM: Cincinnati Reds
LEAGUE: National League
DIVISION: Central
DIVISION: Central
Top Pitching Prospect: Aroldis Chapman
Top Hitting Prospect: Yonder Alonso
Marquee Player: Joey Votto
Future Lineup
 |
| Albert Pujols who? |
Position: Name, Bats- Best tools
1. Drew Stubbs: Centerfield, RH- 5-tools
2. Brandon Phillips: 2nd Base, RH- 5-tools
3. Joey Votto: 1st Base, LH- Power/Patience/Contact
4. Jay Bruce: Rightfield, LH- 5-tools
5. Todd Frazier: 3rd Base, RH- 5-tools
6. Yonder Alonso: Leftfield, LF- Power
7. Billy Hamilton: Shortstop, RH- Speed
8. Devin Mesoraco: Catcher, RH- Defense/Power
Future Rotation
Name, Throws
1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
2. Jonny Cueto, RHP
3. Edinson Volquez
4. Travis Wood
5. Homer Bailey
Closer: Mike Leake
Overall Evaluation
Areas of Improvement:
The biggest problem facing Cincinnati is getting a great leadoff man. Drew Stubbs can hit, but he doesn’t get enough walks. The Reds will also be facing a problem with finding room on the team for both Votto and Yonder Alonso (both first baseman). They’re also very right-handed heavy. With their young arms they’ll be very reliant on Dusty Baker to help them learn and reach their ceilings, and he doesn’t have a great track record with these things.
Outfield:
Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are nothing but solid contributors. Stubbs broke out last year, playing great defense while displaying 30-30 potential. With more patience he’ll be the next Grady Sizemore. Jay Bruce displayed his emerging power down the stretch last September and looks ready to grow into his #1 prospect title from 2008.
Infield:
Joey Votto is emerging as the best first baseman in baseball. He already has one, of potentially many, MVP awards; with a little better defense he could be the best player in the game. Todd Frazier still has good potential (despite a rough go at AAA), and analysts love Billy Hamilton’s athleticism. Let’s not forget Brandon Phillips, who has become a consistent 20-20 player.
 |
| Chapman's stuff is pure filth |
Rotation:
With all their depth and potential they’re six young and promising starters deep. Aroldis Chapman can be scary good (seriously, 105 MPH) and as long as he’s healthy he’ll be dominant. Volquez is on the road back to dominance after TJ surgery, and Johnny Cueto keeps getting better and better.
Intangibles:
They’re real young and have a lot of potential. The rotation has phenomenal potential and it’s scary how electric these arms are. The offense is filled with power/speed guys, and the middle of the order could be ridiculously powerful.
Walt Jocketty has done a really good job piecing this team together. He’s been a big player in the international market, and that’s turned the pitching around. Jocketty has an understanding of the NL Central, runs a strong draft, and has been actively trying to extend his young players.
With Joey Votto’s MVP award, Aroldis Chapman’s ridiculous arm, and all the international players the Reds boast they are beginning to gain a lot of notoriety. This will make them an even bigger destination for international players and free agents. All that PR does count for something when it comes to getting players.
The Reds have a deep history and their division is thinning out. Pittsburgh and Huston aren’t turning things around, contracts are dragging Chicago down, St. Louis faces uncertainty, and without Prince Fielder Milwaukee loses a lot of their clout. At top gear Cincinnati can coast through the regular season and become a huge factor in October.
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