Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Third of a Season Update

Now that we've hit June we're 1/3 of the way through the season. I thought I'd look at the standings and stats and see where the league is at compared to my predictions. 

Standings:
AL Leaders:
East- New York Yankees
Preseason Prediction- Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were in first at the beginning of the week, but an ugly sweep by the White Sox have pushed them down and brought the Yankees back into first. I still fully expect Boston to get back into first once their pitching gets hot.

Central- Cleveland Indians
Preseason Prediction- Detroit Tigers
Detroit is three games over .500, but the Indians continue to hold onto the MLB's best record; this has kept the Tigers 4.5 games back in the Central. Cleveland has a very strong chance of staying on top, but their young pitching has seemed to start losing it's edge as of late. I still like Detroit, but it's anyone's game.

West- Texas Rangers
Preseason Prediction- Oakland Athletics
My Oakland pick is the one I am least confident about as of right now. LA's pitching has been solid, Texas' offense has allowed it to pummel opponents, and Oakland's injuries have killed them. I still love the A's pitching, but if the injuries keep up it's the Ranger's division.

WC- Boston Red Sox
Preseason Prediction- Toronto Blue Jays
Like I said, I think Boston will take the East by the end of the season. My original pick for WC, Toronto, has been an off and on team so far. The offense has been effective, but the starting pitching has struggled. Brett Lawrie is supposed to be up soon and if his bat transfers he could provide the spark plug Toronto needs. 

NL Leaders:
East- Philadelphia Phillies
Preseason Prediction- Philadelphia Phillies
As everyone knew they would the Phillies are leading the East. However, their starting pitching has been weaker than expected; Cliff Lee is not having his best season and Roy Oswalt has been dealing with a lot of injuries. Chase Utley is back and that is a huge boost. Expect them here come October.

Central- St. Louis Cardinals
Preseason Prediction- Milwaukee Brewers
The Cardinals' pitching has been going above and beyond and I don't expect it to continue. Lohse and McCellan are not great pitchers and eventually their luck will run out. Now that Milwaukee's rotation is moving at 100% they're going to be a force. At only three games back I expect them to retake first place by the end of the month.

West- Arizona Diamondbacks
Preseason Prediction- Colorado Rockies (edge), San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers
The D-Backs have been succeeding with fundamentals, but their rotation still leaves a lot to be desired. Colorado has yet to get all their pieces hot at the same time. Once their whole roster gets locked in it'll be hard to stop them. With Posey likely out for the season San Francisco just lost their chance at the playoffs.

WC- Florida Marlins
Preseason Prediction- Atlanta Braves
If I could change my WC prediction I would. Atlanta's offense has been stagnant and their bullpen has not been as good as they were last year. Their rotation has been awesome, but they're still losing too many games. Meanwhile the Marlins are blasting through opponents; their rotation has been solid and their offense isone of the best in the NL. The WC is definitely coming out of the East and right now it looks like it's all Florida. 

Awards:
AL MVP: Jose Bautista
Preseason Prediction: Adrian Gonzalez
A-Gon has been playing really well, but Bautista has been a machine. He leads all players with 20 home runs, he's fifth in the AL in RBIs with 38, and third in batting average with .363. He's getting on base at a .505 pace and slugging an absurd .786. Try making the argument that someone with an OPS of 1.291 doesn't deserve the MVP; it's impossible. 

NL MVP: Ryan Braun
Preseason Prediction: Ryan Braun
Recently, Jay Bruce has been making a good case for himself, but it's too hard to overlook Braun. He's hitting .312/.409/.574 with 12 bombs, 39 RBIs, and 13 swipes. He's kept Milwaukee's offense afloat through injuries and Prince Fielder's inconsistencies. 

AL Cy-Young: Jered Weaver
Preseason Prediction: Felix Hernandez
Weaver started the season at a ridiculous pace, hit some troubles for a couple starts, and is back on his game. He's 6-4, but has 85.2 innings, 77 Ks, a 2.10 ERA, and 2 complete games. The Angel's righthander has been dominate and his pure stuff is phenomenal. If he stays on track the award is his. 

NL Cy-Young: Josh Johnson
Preseason Prediction: Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw has put up great numbers, but it's hard to argue against Johnson being the best in the NL so far. He's only 3-1, but has a 1.64 ERA, a WHIP under 1.0, and 56 Ks in just 60.1 innings. He's recently been sidelined with a shoulder injury, which could cost him some hardware, but if he comes back strong he could be a shoe in. 

AL ROY: Michael Pineda
Preseason Prediction: Dustin Ackley
While Ackley remains in the minors Pineda has been insane so far. In 10 starts he's 6-2 with a 2.42 ERA. He's striking out more than a batter per inning (63.1 innings pitched, 66 Ks). His stuff has been electric and it's hard to see how any other rookie could make a better case for themselves by season end.

NL ROY: Craig Kimbrel
Preseason Prediction: Aroldis Chapman
While I thought this award would go to a possible closer, I didn't think it'd be Kimbrel. But, so far Kimbrel's stuff has been pretty good and he's third in NL saves with 15. He's had growing pains, to the tune of a 3.00 ERA, but his 40/13 K/BB in 27 innings is pretty beastly. If he trusts in his stuff and brings that ERA down it'll be hard to overlook him.

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