Who Lands the Next Huge Extension?

A new trend has begun in Major League Baseball: locking up your young core players to long deals. The first big extension to a young stud came back in 2008. After not only being on the big league roster for a week the Rays signed Evan Longoria to a 6 year deal, with three options, keeping him around until 2016. Philadelphia got the ball rolling last year with a 5 year $125 million extension to Ryan Howard (at the time he already had two years left on his contract so it locked him up through 2016 with an option in 2017). Then this year the Rockies made a big splash when they inked Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez to long term deals (Tulo: 6 years (on top of his remaining 3 year deal) $120 million; Car-Go: 7 year $80.5 million). In just the last couple weeks things kept rolling as the Red Sox finally inked Adrian Gonzalez to a 7 year deal worth $154 million; and, after a great start, the Brewers signed Ryan Braun through 2020. You'll notice that most of these players were under 30 when they signed their deals, with Longo being the youngest at 23 and Howard being the oldest at 30.

The thing is teams are getting smart. Despite how much talent you have it's not worth anything if you don't have anyone to build around. Also, you'll notice a lot of these contracts are located in smaller markets. Those teams are realizing they can't compete with free agency and need to act now to keep their players around. It isn't enough to go year-to-year anymore in arbitration and then try to lock the player up. To build a successful core teams are now having to lock players up sooner and sooner. It's smart team building and payroll structuring. Going into the future the question becomes: who's next? So, as long as I can keep coming up with candidates, every now and then I'm going to start posting stories about who the next mega-extension candidate could, and should, be. The first could be just around the corner.

Side Note: as you will notice none of these candidates will be pitchers. Even though we have seen some bigger/longer extensions to pitchers (Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester) they still don't seem as common as the big contracts going to position players. That's because with the increased risk that comes with pitchers teams are much happier to go year-to-year for a while to make sure they know that the player's are healthy with sturdy arms.

Who is Going to Surprise?

Every year there's a good bet that some team is going to surprise. '07 Rockies, '08 Rays, '10 Padres, baseball is about the upset. This season started strange and it looked like we were going to have some upset teams immediately. However, as the first month of the season comes to a close we start to see regression and divisions return to the norm. Some surprise teams are still leading the charge, and so I thought I'd take a look at two teams that could give their division's a run for their money throughout the entire season.

Cleveland Indians 
Right now they still hold a 3.5 game lead over the Tigers in the AL Central. Their pitching has been pretty surprising, with Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin hanging on to ERAs under 3; in fact, they lead the AL Central in team ERA. Their biggest weapon has been offense. In the AL they're 1st in batting average, 2nd in runs, and 3rd in home runs. They're only going to get better as Shin-Soo Choo continues to march out of his funk, and Grady Sizemore continues to return to form. The biggest concern here is pitching. The bullpen raises questions and the long term effectiveness of the rotation is bleak. However, if they can take control of their arms the Indians could be returning to October a lot sooner than anybody thought.


Florida Marlins
I'm still kicking myself over this one. I'm a big Marlins fan, but I have overrated them in the past. So, after the Braves picked up Dan Uggla I figured that they and the Phillies would be to strong for the Fish to beat this year. However, I was very wrong and they're making sure I know it. The biggest improvement has been pitching. Cameron Maybin and Dan Uggla seemed like tough loses for Florida, but in return they got bullpen arms that have been a saving grace to the tune of a NL leading ERA. Florida has three real good starters, but to stay relevant they need better production from Volstad and Vazquez. Just like Cleveland their offense has been ridiculous. Logan Morrison has become a rock in the lineup, and once Hanley gets out of their slump they become that much more dangerous. They're second in the NL East right now, and they could definitely stay there all season long.

Poor Ryan Raburn

This might be one of the best bloopers of the year. Not only does Raburn make a fielding blunder, but he takes a face plant as well.

Looking for a good laugh? Check it out:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110426&content_id=18276054&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Once Again...

I'm sorry for my lacking of posting. It was a busy week and on Sunday the Easter Bunny decided it would be funny to bring me the stomach flu. Needless to say it has not been fun and has led to a lack of posting on my part. Hopefully I'll get over it soon and we'll be able to bring some more baseball news to your door step.

However, while I've got you here there is a new developments on the Dodgers case. Apparently the Dodgers have not payed taxes for seven years despite taking in $100 million in prophets. McCourt keeps digging himself a hole and I don't see how he's going to win the Dodgers back. Below is a link to the story.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/04/25/mccourt.wilpons/index.html?eref=writers

Hey All

Hey everyone! Hope you're all enjoying the beginning to your weekend. I know I haven't been too active this week. I've been swamped with school and busy following the NBA playoffs (GO BLAZERS!). However, I saw this link on MLBtraderumors.com and got a huge laugh. If you're looking for a pick me up I suggest you check it out.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Announcing-the-winners-of-the-Kevin-Youkilis-pho?urn=mlb-wp3871

Big Breaking News!

Today Commissioner Bud Selig announced that he will be appointing someone to oversee the finances for the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA has had issues ever since the McCourt divorce and this is an obvious attempt to save one of the MLB's bigger markets; others have perceived this as the beginning of the end for Frank McCourt as Selig is going to force him out of town.

For more details:
http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110420&content_id=18039056&vkey=news_la&c_id=la

Sunday: Ugly Trade #1

Oh Montreal...

This sums up Colon pretty well

The pinnacle of Ugly Trade week is here. I present to you one of the most ridiculous trades of all time. If this trade had never happened perhaps the Expos wouldn't have had to move to Washington; maybe the Cleveland Indians would have been forced to move instead. The results of this trade not going through may never be known, but we do know it is one of the ugliest trades of the last 10 years.

The Cleveland Indians send: Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew
The Montreal Expos send: Lee Stevens, Brandon Philips, Grady Sizemore, and Cliff Lee

I know what you're thinking, what a frightening trade, and I agree. Colon was a workhorse in Cleveland, but never an outstanding pitcher. He ended up with a 75-45 record and a career ERA in Cleveland of 3.92, which is good, but not worth the haul the Expos gave up. Montreal would only hold on to Colon until the end of the season before flipping him to Chicago for players that netted them nothing.

It all seems so unfair

Cleveland got the bigger end of the stick in this one, by about a mile. Brandon Philips was underrated by the Indians and eventually traded to the Reds were his stats took off. However, the player they got in return (Jeff Stevens) was influential in the Indians getting their current closer Chris Perez.

Another piece was a young pitcher named Cliff Lee. Lee would struggle from injuries, but he had massive upside and eventually hit it in 2008. The south paw went 22-3 that season with a 2.54 ERA and 4 complete games, netting him a Cy Young Award. Lee would dominate in 2009 before being flipped to the Phillies for another great haul. Today he's known for his ridiculously dominate control and efficiency.

Despite both those great players we all know the true diamond in the rough was Grady Sizemore. Sizemore was a young athletic fielder who would begin his stellar career two years after the trade, at the young age of 21. At 28 Sizemore has become the marquee player in Cleveland, posting a career slash line of .272/.363/.477 with 129 home runs and 134 stolen bases. Sizemore led the Tribe to a playoff berth in 2007 and his defense has netted him two gold gloves. His best season came in 2008 where he had 33 home runs and 38 swipes. The big lefty suffered from some injuries in '09 and '10, but he's finally returned (after a long battle back from microfracture knee surgery) and he hit a home run today in his first game in the 2011 season.

One can only imagine where these two teams would be without these deals. I'm not sure about Cleveland, but Montreal might still be in Montreal, and a dominate team. They would have Cliff Lee as an ace and an offense built around Ryan Zimmerman and Grady Sizemore. It was a strange deal at the time, and one that seemed to have a huge disparity in the amount of talent being traded. It was a deal that I think changed the landscape of the league forcing Montreal out of Canada and into Washington as the Nationals.

Saturday: Ugly Trade #2

Dan Haren = Beast

St. Louis fans got used to this real quick

We're almost to number 1. Yesterday we discussed a dynasty that could have been, tonight we examine a team letting go of one of the best right handers of the late 2000s.


St. Louis Cardinals send: Dan Haren, Daric Barton, Kiko Calero
Oakland Athletics send: Mark Mulder

I know I can't blame the Red Birds on this one too much. In the early 2000s Mark Mulder was one of the best pitchers in the AL. Despite a spike in ERA in 2004 the Cardinals took a chance and traded for the ace in '05. They couldn't understand the disastrous results of this trade. He would have a solid 2005 for his new team, but Mulder would face injury issues for the rest of his career. He would finish 21-18 in 53 starts for St. Louis, but he had a 5.04 ERA, only 311 IP (less then 6 per start) and a WHIP that spiked to 1.531. The sad thing is after his good 2005 the Cardinals extended Mulder to a three season deal, wasting about $25 million.

How about what Oakland got? Well, Daric Barton is now their starting first baseman. He's not a game changer, but he could develop some decent pop and he owns a career .372 OBP. Carlero was a decent reliever for Oakland, to the tune of a 3.96 ERA. So far, this is just mediocrity.

What makes this a travesty is the pitcher they gave up. Most people don't know that Dan Haren (before being traded to the Diamond Backs and then the Angels) was originially a St. Louis Cardinal; and, he actualy pitched in the 2004 World Series. Haren's stats weren't amazing in St. Louis, but as we all know they jumped the gun in trading the righty. He would go on to have a 43-36 record in 102 starts for Oakland, with a 3.64 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, a strong K/9 and a lot of innings. Billy Beane would then flip Haren to Arizona for one of the biggest prospect hauls in Oakland history (that landed them Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, and Chris Carter; but, it doesn't make the list because Arizona got decent milage out of Haren and a nice haul for him when they traded him to LA last season). Haren's career would skyrocket in the NL West with Arizona and he hasn't looked too shabby this season for the Angels. Haren has become known for his ability to pitch a lot of innings without giving up a lot of hits (he has a career 1.182 WHIP).

Imagine, if you could, a world where this trade never happened. St. Louis would be rocking the NL Central every year with a rotation of Wainwright, Haren, and Carpenter. Also, their season might have been saved this year, with Wainwright going down, if they had a worth while replacement ace in Dan Haren.

Friday: Ugly Trade #3

Big Tex carries a big stick

The dynasty that could have been

Just like Wednesday this is technically two different trades, but they involve the same player so I looped them into one Ugly Trade.


Trade 1:
Texas Rangers send: Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay
Atlanta Braves send: Beau Jones, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia


Trade 2:
Atlanta Braves send: Mark Teixeira
Los Angeles Angels send: Steve Marek and Casey Kotchman


In 2007 the Rangers made a bold move in order to restock the farm system. They dangled their power happy, switch hitting, gold glove defending first baseman, Mark Teixeira, on the line. The Braves bit and gave Texas a haul of young players. Teixeira was a stud with the Braves, hitting .295/.395/.548 with 37 home runs in 157 games. Atlanta seemed on the verge of being a powerhouse, with an offense that was built around two powerful switch hitters in Tex and Chipper Jones. However, in 2008 their pitching dive bombed and they were struggling, so they decided to flip Teixeira to a different team. They ended up trading him to the Angels. 


So what did they give up, and what did they get in return? Starting with the latter, they didn't get jack squat. I usually respect Frank Wren, but they gave up five prospects for Tex and got two players back. Kotchman is a defensive minded first baseman, but his bat never fully developed and the Braves got nothing but average offense out of him. Marek is a 27 year old pitcher still stuck in the minors. The Braves had no reason to move Tex, and they're not a money deficient club. If they had extended Teixeira they could have built a club around him. But, they panicked and let one of the great switch hitters with power go.


The true injustice is what they gave up. The Braves have a ridiculous well of talent in their system right now, and if they had not gone through with the Teixeira trade they would be on the verge of a dynasty. Neftali Feliz has an electric arm, and though he's been a closer in Texas, he could have been a great starter in an amazing young rotation in Atlanta. Elvis Andrus is still harnessing his contact skills, but his glove and speed are sure things. He also could have filled the middle infield void Atlanta's been suffering from the last couple of years. Matt Harrison and Salty haven't been superstars yet, but they still had upside that could have done Atlanta some good. They never got much out of Teixeira, and if they hadn't been so bold they would have the premier club in all of baseball right now. Atlanta has a bright future, but it could have been so much brighter.

Thursday: Ugly Trade #4

The Colorado Rockies send: Matt Holliday
The Oakland Athletics send: Greg Smith, Huston Street, and Carlos Gonzalez

Matt Holliday in the World Series

Boy, does this one look ugly. Heading into the 2009 season Billy Beane decided he was going to make a power play for the AL West. The Rockies, looking to cash in on their expensive left fielder, put Matt Holliday on the block. Beane took his shot and traded for the power happy hitter. People were highly critical of the deal, saying Holliday would never possess in Oakland what he had in Colorado. 

He wasn't terrible in Oakland. In 93 games he posted an .831 OPS, with 11 home runs and 12 bags. However, the Athletics felt it'd be more worth it to trade him again before the season was over. Unfortunately, they traded Holliday just as he was getting hot, and he went on to post a 1.023 OPS with 13 home runs in 63 games for the Cardinals. Despite what they gave up for Holliday, Oakland got pretty much nothing from St. Louis. The sad thing is, Oakland had a pretty good team that year, and if they had kept Holliday as he was getting hot they might have made a big comeback; or, Beane could have gone off his normal behavior and extended the slugger and built a franchise around him.


So, what makes this so ugly, besides the results for Oakland? What they gave up in return, that's what. Greg Smith isn't even worth mentioning, so let's ignore him. The Rockies got a hell of a reliever in Huston Street. Street was really good in Oakland, and he adjusted great to Coors and has handled himself well there. In two seasons with the Rockies he's had a 3.10 ERA, 55 saves, a 0.966 WHIP, and a killer 9.5 K/9. Street has developed into an incredibly dependable closer. Could you imagine him in that Oakland bullpen with Andrew Bailey? Talk about shut down.

Oh, what could have been

The true gem though was Carlos Gonzalez. The kid is a phenomenal 5-tool player. He's the second coming of Grady Sizemore; i.e. he's going to be a consistent 30-30 player. The one thing Car-Go has, that Sizemore never did, is Coors. It takes a 30-30 player and pushes him to 40-30 potential (and with Gonzalez's athleticism he could have back-to-back seasons at 40-40). Oakland lost a amazing player in this deal; and imagine, Car-Go has all the tools Oakland was looking for in Holliday. I love Beane, and there's no way he could know just how good Gonzalez was going to be; but, no matter how you look at it Oakland looks stupid on this trade. 

However, people have been critical of Car-Go. They claim he only succeeds at spacious Coors, shown by his pretty skewed home/road splits. I think he'll be just fine though. He almost had 200 hits last season (he had 197); even in Coors that's a hard feat to reach. This kid is the next great lefty slugger in the game and soon enough everyone will know his name; and that's going to kill Oakland fans.

Wednesday: Ugly Trade #5

......

Seriously....

This one is a personal favorite, because I don't think a lot of people know about it. It certainly surprised me when I found out about it. These are actually two different deals, but since they involve the same teams and only happened about a month apart from each other I've lumped them into one deal.

Trade 1:

The Cleveland Indians send: Eduardo Perez

The Seattle Mariners send: Asdrubal Cabrera

Trade 2:

The Cleveland Indians send: Ben Broussard

The Seattle Mariners send: Shin-Soo Choo, Shawn Nottingham, and cash

.....

You read those right people. Bill Bavasi (probably one of the worst GMs ever) strikes again. True Bavasi made a lot of horrible deals, but these two might be the worse; you could argue the Eric Bedard trade, but the Ms knew they were getting an injury risk, and Adam Jones hasn't exactly been a superstar in Baltimore. 

In 2006, in some sort of horrible effort to find offense, Bavasi traded for two horrible players. At 36 (yeah, they traded for a 36 year old), Perez was off to a quick start for the Tribe, posting a .979 OPS in 37 games. Shockingly enough (please, sense the sarcasm) he would play only 43 games for Seattle, as a part time DH against lefties, and post an OPS of .545. Broussard was a 29 year old who was supposed to have power and never found it; so, naturally you would want him in a pitchers park... oh Bavasi. At the time of the trade he was hitting .321 in Cleveland with 13 home runs, but once he came to Seattle he hit only .238 with 8 bombs. Broussard was primarily a super utility guy who played awful defense and never had any ability to hit in Safeco. 

how did this trade happen?

Meanwhile, in Cleveland, Mark Shapiro was giddy as a schoolgirl. These trades were pure thievery. Shin-Soo Choo would remain one of the most underrated players in the game, until 2010 when he would post back-to-back 20-20 seasons. Choo has become a 5-tool player; his defense is amazing in right field, his career slash line is .295/.388/.483, and as stated above he's become a consistent 20-20 player (and at only 28 he could make a jump to 30-30).

Pretty sure Bavasi is pure evil

Asdrubal Cabrera has remained an unknown, but 2011 might be his coming out party. He's been a versatile starter for the Indians, playing second, short, and third; he hasn't excelled at either position, but with time to practice at one spot he could become a really good fielder. He's been nothing but consistent with a bat, posting a slash line of .284/.346/.400 in Cleveland. He has 20 steal potential (his career high is 17) and is starting to develop power; he has 4 bombs so far in 2011 and could become a consistent 15-20 player.

This may seem paranoid, but I have this theory that Bill Bavasi was never working for the Mariners. I think he was secretly trained by the other 29 teams in the league to give them great young talent for free. Oh Seattle fans, what could have been?

No Big Surprise...

Josh Hamilton is hurt. The Ranger's center fielder strained his arm sliding into home plate today against the Tigers. Hamilton was called out and suddenly replaced by Ian Kinsler in the lineup the next inning. It was later released that Hamilton broke his arm on the slide and will now be out 6-8 weeks. Word is Hamilton did not want to try and take home, and he blamed his third base coach for making the decision. Texas is off to a ridiculous start, but who knows how this news will slow them down moving forward.

The boys at baseball tonight were incredibly critical of Hamilton's decision to run; you can check that out here:  http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6339976

Another One Bites the Dust

After Manny retired over the weekend another famed slugger has announced his retirement today. Carlos Delgado has announced his departure from the game today after a second consecutive year without being on an opening day roster. After hip surgery last season he attempted a comeback with the Red Sox, but never made it out of the minors. Delgado finishes his career with a .280/.383/.546 slash line, as well as 473 career home runs.

Tuesday: Ugly Trade #6

We opened Ugly Trade Week up with a Boston Red Sox deal that had unforeseeable repercussions. Now we turn out heads to Boston's favorite rivals, the New York Yankees. Back in 2008 the Tampa Bay Rays were steamrolling the competition, and the Red Sox were right behind them. The Yankees had fallen to third place and looked awful. Right at the trade deadline they decided to do something drastic. And so this ugly trade was born.

Marte still haunts Cashman

The leadoff man who got away

The Pittsburgh Pirates send: Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte
The New York Yankees send: Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jose Tabata


At the time the deal looked like a steal. Karstens and Ohlendorf had both struggled in the Bronx, and Tabata was having a horrible season at AA; meanwhile Marte was a dominate lefty and Nady was having his best season yet, hitting .330 and posting a .919 OPS. However, things quickly fell apart on this deal.

Whatever magic Marte had in his wild arm at Pittsburgh he lost when he got to New York. In 18.1 innings for the Yankees, in 2008, Marte had an ERA 5.40; for the next two seasons he would struggle with injuries and end up having a career ERA, with the Yankees, of 6.02, and a record of 2-6. Nady would struggle as well; after the trade he hit .268 with an OPS of .794.  Mid-April of 2009, Nady would require the second Tommy John Surgery of his career (as a position player, that's insane!) and miss the rest of the season, ending his tenure with New York.


For Pittsburgh the trade seemed a dud as well. Jeff Karstens almost pitched a perfect game through 7.2 innings on August 6th of 2008, but he hasn't shown any flash of brilliance since. Both Ohlendorf and McCutchen have been mediocre pitchers as well. However, the true gem of this deal, has been Jose Tabata. After hitting .248 with a .630 OPS for New York's AA team he would finish his 2008 season batting .348 with a .964 OPS for Pittsburgh's AA team. In 2010 he got his first taste of action at the big leagues, hitting .299 with 19 SBs in 102 games, while playing above-average defense. So far Tabata has kept that success rolling in 2011, starting the season off hitting .342, with 5 SBs, 2 HRs (he only hit 4 in 2010 so the power is developing), and an OBP of .457. Imagine if this deal had never gone down; the Yankees would have one of the most dangerous batting orders with Brett Gardner and Jose Tabata leading off. Both have great patience and speed; they would absolutely wreak havoc on teams. Instead, Tabata is demolishing pitching in the NL while developing into a 5-tool player, and the Yankees had to suffer through three seasons of Damaso Marte.

This Will Blow Your Mind

Usually I hate commentators and feel they have nothing to add to a game. Except, tonight, they talked about an absolutely ridiculous stat. David Ortiz hold the longest running per season hit streak of triples in the AL. What does that jumble of a sentence mean? It means from 2000-2011 (since he hit one tonight) Ortiz has hit at least one triple in each of those seasons. Seriously, Big Papi, the slowest guy on the Red Sox for the last 8 seasons. Ridiculous... the more you know :)

Monday: Ugly Trade #7

What could have been

What got wasted

The Cleveland Indians send: Victor Martinez

The Boston Red Sox send: Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price


At first, you might not understand this one. Masterson hasn't been too good so far and V-Mart did provide some good offense for the Sox. However, I will argue that this is not the case. When the Sox acquired Martinez they were looking for a game changer who could help them on defense and support their struggling offense. He was supposed to be the piece that would help them get back into the World Series. However, in the 2009 ALDS Martinez only hit .182, with an OPS of .432, and the Sox didn't even make it into the playoffs in 2010.


Meanwhile Hagadone and Masterson have started to show their upsides. Hagadone is finally breaking into the upper minors, and holds a minor league career K/9 of 10.53. Masterson has shined so far this season, going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA. He's also made a note of letting the Sox know what they missed; he holds a 2-0 record against them with a 0.64 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. Masterson has one of the most deceptive submarine deliveries in baseball and with his improving control he could become a really good pitcher (he's only 26). 

...and the fallout

But, the biggest fallout of this deal has yet to be discussed. It could have saved the Red Sox $82.5 million. You're probably asking yourself: "what is this guy talking about?" His name, is John Lackey. That's right, I think if this V-Mart trade had never been done then the Red Sox would have never signed Lackey. If they hadn't made the trade the Sox would have had another young front-line starter for their rotation. However, with only four starters and no good replacement Boston went and signed Lackey, who has done nothing, but struggled, since he's got to Boston. The Sox did receive a draft pick for losing Martinez this offseason, but they also lost a pick when they signed Lackey. The Sox could have had a great rotation with Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Masterson and Daisuke; but, instead they lost a great submarine starter and wasted $82.5 million on a burnt out ace.

Is Boston Righting the Ship?

Just as it is to early to freak out over the season, it is also to early to relax about the season. However, I said from the beginning that Beckett is the cog that is most important for Boston success. Tonight Beckett pitched a gem, going 8 innings with 2 hits 0 walks and 10 Ks. What stood out most for me was the use of the curve ball. Beckett has an elite curve and when he sets up the fastball it becomes his out pitch, and against Cleveland earlier in the week I didn't see that curve nearly as often as I did tonight. Lester is an ace, and Buchholz is better then he's shown so far (and Boston believes so too because they gave him a 4 year extension today); but, Josh Beckett is the one guy who's been so good in the past and is, at the end of the day, the biggest support and leader for the rotation. If he keeps pitching like he did tonight, I think the Sox are going to start blazing. With Tampa coming to Fenway (and struggling in their own right) Boston could be 5-7 really quick.

Upcoming this Week

This week I'm going to kick off what should be a fun time. With some ugly starts to the season I'm looking ahead to July; because, in July we have the trade deadline. So, this week has been deemed (by myself) as Ugly Trade Week. Each day I'll be profiling another trade from the last 10 years that involves big time players, and big time ripoffs. It should be a good seven days. Hope everyone's enjoyed the first Monday-Sunday week of the season and thanks for reading guys!

Players on the Verge of Being the Best

Hitters

*Average/OBP/SLG, HRs, RBIs, runs, SBs

C: Joe Mauer

Season Averages: .327/.407/.481, 12 HRs, 67 RBIs, 72 runs, 5 SBs

Award: 4x All-Star, 3x Gold Glover, 4x Silver Slugger, MVP (2009)

Need: Power

Mauer has been promising us power his entire career. We know he can bring home the batting titles, and we know his defense is good. In his career he’s thrown out 35% of base runners, but in ’07 he threw out 56%. However, despite a .327 career batting average, he only averages 12 HRs a season. His season high is 28 in 2009 (when he won his MVP). If he could consistently hit 20 bombs a season and get his career OPS about a .900 average he could go down as one of the best catchers ever.

1B: Joey Votto

Season Averages: .314/.401/.557, 30 HRs, 98 RBIs, 86 runs, 9 SBs

Awards: 1x All-Star, MVP (2010)

Need: Defense

Votto has finally put all the offensive pieces together. He out hit everybody last season and brought home an MVP for it. However, first base is such a deep position and it’s no longer about carrying a big stick. Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the game right now, but he’s also known for his ridiculous defense at first (he’s got two gold gloves, so far). If Votto wants to take over as the best player in the game today he needs to step up the defense and be the best on both sides of the ball.

2B: Dustin Pedroia

Season Averages: .305/.369/.460, 13 HRs, 62 RBIs, 93 runs, 14 SBs

Awards: 3x All-Star, 1x Gold Glover, ROY (2007), MVP (2008)

Need: 20-20

Pedroia is the best spark plug in the game, and he’s been consistent in his entire career. Roberto Alomar got into the HOF because of his amazing defense at second, but he also averaged 12 HRs and 28 SBs a season. Pedroia has the D, but he needs to improve the production. He can hit, but he is only above average in categories, not great in any. If he could become a consistent 20-20 player it would make him a stronger force on offense. He needs to go from above average to great.

SS: Troy Tulowitzki

Season Averages: .290/.362/.495, 23 HRs, 83 RBIs, 86 runs, 10 SBs

Awards: 1x All-Star, 1x Gold Glover, 1x Silver Slugger

Need: Health

There hasn’t been this much power at shortstop since A-Rod. Tulo is a complete hitter and plays some of the best defense at the position. He’s definitely a vacuum. However, every year his offensive numbers are dragged down because he can’t play enough games. He’s averaged about 132 games a season. If he could average 150, like most starters, he could consistently hit 35-40 bombs a season. At short, that’s plain ridiculous.

3B: Evan Longoria

Season Averages: .283/.361/.521, 27 HRs, 101 RBIs, 88 runs, 10 SBs

Awards: 3x All-Star, 2x Gold Glover, 1x Silver Slugger, ROY (2008)

Need: Consistency

 

He’s hit for power, and he’s hit for average. But, third base has had some great players and that competition is stiffer then ever right now. In order to stick out Longo has to put it all together. He’s already carrying the Rays, playing stellar defense, and become a household name. But, his averages are weak. If he wants to be great he needs to hit .300, have 30+ bombs, and steal 15-20 bases a season. He’s still so young and has a promising career ahead of him; if anyone on this list can take the next step it’s this kid.

OF: Carlos Gonzalez

Season Averages: .300/.346/.520, 13 HRs, 43 RBIs, 49 runs, 12 SBs

Awards: 1x Gold Glover, 1x Silver Slugger

Need: Hitting on the road

Car-Go is still a bit of an unknown and people are right to be concerned with his numbers. He has been really good since breaking out with the Rockies. However, his road/away splits say a lot about his game. His career home OPS: .987; his career OPS away: .739. Critics are saying he can only hit at home where the ball flies better. But, he almost had 200 hits in 2010 and that’s hard to achieve if you’re hitting .270 on the road, so there’s reason to believe. If Car-Go can support his home numbers on the road imagine how much better his stats would be.

Pitchers

*Wins-Losses OR Saves, ERA/WHIP/K/9, IP, Ks

SP: Jon Lester

Season Averages: 12-5, 3.55/1.29/8.4, 153 IP, 142 Ks

Need: Consistency

Lester has really good numbers, especially for someone who plays in the hitter dominated AL East. However, it’s scary how good his numbers could be! First, he’s a notoriously slow starter, and doesn’t warm up until his 4^th/5^th start of the season; second, he tends to have a blow up about once a month. If he could limit those blow-ups he could easily support an ERA under two, with a K/9 that pushes the high 9s.

SP: Brandon Morrow

Season Averages: 5-5, 4.19/1.43/10, 86 IP, 96 Ks

Need: Control

 

Morrow has always had potential, but his ceiling has remained out of reach. After moving into the Jays rotation he’s finally started to shine. With his stuff he can lead the league in Ks every season. But, to be seen as the best he needs to lower his walks, which in turn will support his other peripherals. That 10.0 K/9 is HOF good, but he needs more than flash to be brilliant.

SP: Clayton Kershaw

Season Averages: 9-8, 3.17/1.267/9.3, 161 IP, 166 Ks

Need: Hardware

We already know his NL counterpart, Tim Lincecum, is good. He’s got two Cy-Young awards and a World Series ring; Clayton Kershaw has none of those. But, he’s much better than Lincecum. His numbers speak for themselves, but he needs exposure. In order to get this Kershaw needs to bring home some awards and carry LA.

SP: Josh Johnson

Season Averages: 8-4, 3.1/1.242/8.3, 111 IP, 102 Ks

Need: Leadership

JJ is a beast and one of the best pitchers in the NL. However, he plays for a young and ailing Florida team. If he wants to be great he needs to become the leader that that Marlins club is desperate for. The Marlins have built their rotation around Johnson and with a few marches into October (or a couple Cy-Youngs) he could finally get the exposure and respect he deserves.

RP: Daniel Bard

Season Averages: 2 Saves, 2.61/1.113/10.1, 62 IP, 70 Ks

Need: Saves

Bard has some of the nastiest stuff we’ve seen in a reliever since the Sandman. His fastball is a consistent 97-100 MPH, and his slider is as devastating as they come. But, he’s stuck behind Jonathan Papelbon. The good news for Bard, Paps will probably be gone after this year. If he takes over as closer his numbers could be as good as they come for 9^th inning men.

Finally

Congrats to all you Sox fans out there; they've finally won their first game of 2011. It was quite a slug fest between Boston and New York today. The pitching was awful on both sides of the field (the final score was 9-6, wowza). Dustin Pedroia finally reclaimed his spark plug title, hitting a homer during his first AB, and finishing the day with a 3-5, HR, 3 RBI, 2 R line. It's only one game, and the season is still so young, but it's a monkey off my back that's for sure. Somehow, it seems like it's only right the W comes from the home opener against the Yankees.

In other news, Manny Ramirez has surprisingly retired from baseball today. The slugger, known for his antics on and off the field, finishes his career with a .312/.411/.585 slash line, 2574 hits, 1831 RBIs, and 555 homers. The word from the MLB is they recently approached Manny about a drug related issue (whether that means a street drug or steroids has yet to be disclosed). Instead of facing the music, again, Man-Ram decided instead to retire. No matter what you think of him (frankly, I don't think very much of him) Ramirez will go down as one of the most feared hitters in the late 90s-early 2000s.

Injuries Abroad

Doug Miller, in an article for MLB.com, points out the long list of injured starters so far in the season (which has officially been going for a week as of today). However, he did forget to mention position players too. Studs like Evan Longoria, Chase Utley, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday have already gone down and expected to miss some big time. It seems like were still in spring.

Here's that articles:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110406&content_id=17446004&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Help!

Hey everyone. I am in the process of writing a piece about the love of baseball. I asked for a bunch of people's help in writing this piece. I got some really great responses, but am still waiting on some. I'd really appreciate it if you guys who I asked could help me out. If I didn't ask you, but you want to help, go ahead and send me something about "why you love baseball." It can be any length (seriously, a sentence or a couple paragraphs). Thanks everyone and I really appreciate all of your help.

Time to Change Predictions....?

Heck no! This morning I was watching ESPN and Skip Bayless was jumping ship on all his picks. To him less than a week of the season is a reasonable sample size. It is far too early to start freaking out. If you were a fan of my picks here are some reasons to not be scared.


Boston Red Sox (0-3)
Okay, these guys had one of the most hyped offseasons we've seen in a long time. And so it is only normal to freak out when they start the season 0-3. Don't be fooled, this squad is talented. The offense just needs some time to get warmed up. Guys have been hot and cold so far, and once everyone gets going it'll be ridiculous. The pitching is a little disconcerting. Lester is a slow starter, don't be worried about him. Beckett pitched a pretty good game tonight, and Buchholz was a couple mistake pitches away from having a win on Sunday. Lackey and Dice-K are still questions. However, once all the cogs warm up and get moving they're going to have a good season.


Detroit Tigers (1-3)
The offense had some good showings against the Yankees, but the pitching gave up too many runs. Verlander is a slow starter; he had such a good spring so people thought he'd be ready to go at season start, but it seems he's up to his old tricks. Brad Penny is going to be average, that's a given, so nothing different there. My biggest concern is Max Scherzer. He was pretty wild against New York, but he might just be a slow starter too. Him and Porcello are their keys. They've got talent, they just need to realize it.


Oakland Athletics (1-2)
Spotty fielding, and that's it. They're defense has looked ugly and it's giving the pitchers a bad rep. However, Oakland is not known for bad defense. They have most of the fielders they had last season, and that squad had the 5th best team UZR in 2010. Once they settle down the pitching will shine and the defense will be brilliant. They can shut down Texas, the pitching is that dominate.

Toronto Blue Jays (2-1)
They're slugging big time. Ricky Romero and Kyle Drabek were very good in their first starts. Once Brandon Morrow is back they'll get that much better. No reason to be worried Jay fans.


Philadelphia Phillies (3-0)
They're having the start the Sox should have had. The pitching is great, the offense hasn't been horrible (though they were close to throwing away their first game). The long-term effect of the injuries has yet to be seen, but for now they're rolling.

Milwaukee Brewers (0-4)
The Brew Crew has got to get healthy. If Greinke was pitching game one there's a good chance they win. Also, they were a John Axford blown save away from winning that season opener. He's young, but was good last year; once he settles down his control he'll be shut down. Their pitching is so good, and their offense has been rolling so far. Once they get healthy look out.


Colorado Rockies (1-1)
Ubaldo was more wild than usual on opening day, but after two games we can't say anything about this team. As I'm typing this Chacin is going toe-to-toe with Kershaw and winning which is a great sign. The offense looks healthy and the pitching has been good. If the Rockies are going to go far they need to get going because right now the Dodgers look really dangerous. Matt Kemp is rolling and the pitching has been brilliant. Until the Giants get things figured out it's all LA and Colorado in the West.

Atlanta Braves (3-1)
Atlanta looks real good right now. If I knew the injuries that would befall the Phils I would've moved the Braves into first in the East. Right now they're offense looks greatly improved. Heyward and McCann have been hot, and Chipper is still healthy. Jurrjens is already back on the DL, but that farm system has so much pitching depth. The Braves are going to have a real good season, and if they stay healthy they could be a big contender.

Three Players

The other day I was on MLB.com checking out some videos. On their they had some interviews with their "cavemen." If you didn't know, let me fill you in: the MLB started a new "fan dream job" this season. If accepted (only two were) applicants would move to New York where they would get paid to watch every game of the season. I applied, and unfortunately did not get it (though as long as they keep posting that job I'm going to keep applying). Anyways, in these interviews one of the big questions was "if you were to start a team with only three active players who would it be?" This is a questions I've thought about before and so I thought I'd take a stab at it. Below is my list of three. I'd love to hear your guys' answers as well, so feel free to comment, email me, or facebook me, I'd love to start a running discussion with this.

Is any ace better?

1. Josh Johnson- As far as right-handed starters under 30 go (sorry Roy Halladay) I think Josh Johnson is the best. A lot of people will disagree, but this kid has never gotten a chance at exposure since he plays for the Marlins. The fact is JJ is a total beast. For one, he is built like an ox (6-7, 249 lbs., and only 27). He's never been afraid of competition and seems to pitch his best when pitted against other aces. On May 29th, 2010, people were very easy to overlook his 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB line against the Phillies; mostly, because that was Roy Halladay's perfect game, but you get my point. 

His average two season line as Marlins ace: 2.77 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.229 BAA, a 13-6 record, 196.1 IP, and 189 Ks. That's all while playing in Florida, a team with terrible defense and a suspect bullpen. Another great thing Johnson has going for him is he has already gotten TJ surgery out of the way. It only took him 11 months to recover, which is ridiculously quick. Johnson is the perfect ace: he can elevate his game; he has amazing command of the zone; and his sturdy frame allows him to pitch deep. If I'm starting a team he's the one I want leading the rotation.


2. Clayton Kershaw- All the best teams have had a great 1-2 punch: Johnson and Schilling, Garcia and Moyer, Maddux and Smoltz, Clemens and Boyd, Nolan and Billingham. So, if I'm building a team I want a great ace combo in my rotation. Since I already have JJ as my righty, I wanted a strong lefty, and that brought me to the wonder-boy that is Clayton Kershaw. The power lefty is in his fourth season in the majors and is only 23. Fangraphs has him listed at 6-3 and 217 lbs.; not built like Johnson, but he's still shown great strength and endurance.

Every team needs a power lefty

Kershaw has constantly improved his game, upping his innings, lowering his walks/peripherals, and striking out guys like crazy. His average line over the last two seasons: 2.85 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 0.203 BAA, an 11-9 record, 188 IP, and 199 Ks. Kershaw is one of the best lefties in the game and I think this year he could win the NL Cy Young. Any GM would be happy to have a power lefty at the top of his staff, and no one could be better than Clayton Kershaw.


 
3. Dustin Pedroia- As important as pitching is, it is also important to cover defense and intangibles (personality, leadership, defense, etc.). Lucky for me, Dustin Pedroia covers all those things. The Rat already has a ROY, MVP, gold glove, three playoff appearances, and a world series ring. His average season line: .305/.369/.460, 13 HRs, 62 RBIs, 93 runs, 14 SBs. From 2007-2010 Pedroia has the fourth best total UZR amongst second basemen at 23.7; and he's never had a negative UZR. If sabermetrics aren't your thing he has a .990 career fielding percentage. 

I want a spark plug on my team, and I had to have one Sox

Pedroia is considered a "spark plug." Leading off in the 2007 World Series he belted a homer over the Green Monster. The ensuing slaughter saw the Sox win game one 13-1 over the Rockies. His energy powers the offense while making some spectacular plays in the field. He's also got one of the funniest personalities I've seen in a ball player and knows how to create a clubhouse atmosphere. His playoff experience also makes him a great leader for any young club (especially since he's still only 27). 



So there you have it. I'd love to hear other peoples top threes so send 'em in, or comment. Thanks for reading guys, and hope you're all enjoying the start to the season (at least a little more than me).  

Second Day 2.5

This game started with a big homer, from the Hammer, off of King Felix in the first inning. Who said the Athletics have no offense? Cahill looked great until he got into trouble in the 3rd, where he allowed a bases loaded walk to Jack Cust making the score 2-1 As. This is when I went grocery shopping for the week, expecting to come home to about the same score. An hour later I turned on the TV to find the score 6-2. Apparently, while I was out, the Mariners took advantage of some ugly Oakland errors to put some runs up. Also, Chone Figgins, hit a homerun which is almost as unlikely as Milton Bradley not running his mouth off, crying, or getting in legal troubles this season.


Those extra runs was all Seattle needed as Felix settled down and continued to dominate. On just 108 pitches he went a full 9, giving up 2 earned, 0 walks, and nabbing 5 Ks. The loss for Oakland is all on the hands of Cahill. He only gave up 1 run, but needed over 100 pitches to get through his 4.2 innings, causing his skipper to pull him. Once he was out Oakland was forced to stretch out their 'pen and that's where they lost this one. The As ace did have 8 Ks in those 4.2, but also had 4 BBs. 


The final thing I'd like to touch on was the tributes to Dave Niehaus. It wasn't much, but the announcers had moments of silence for the first pitch, as well as a half inning later on. I'm looking forward to what the Ms pull out, for the voice of the team, during the home opener.


Around the Horn
More Royal Greenhorns: It was a surprising pitchers duel in LA tonight, and a 1-1 tie was finally broke in the bottom 9 off a Kila Ka'aihue walkoff shot.


Josh Johnson is still Josh Johnson: JJ was his normal dominant self, taking a no-no into the 6th, and eventually getting the win off a 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K line. The Marlin ace only needed 92 pitches, but was pulled early (most likely due to a pitch limit after going down late last season). 


Good Day for Rooks: Logan Morrison went deep for the Fish, Brandon Belt hit his first big league bomb, and Ka'aihue had his walk off blast.


Bad Day to be an Outfielder: As I said early Matt Holliday is out for an undetermined amount of time as a result of having to have an appendectamy; and, Marlin slugger Mike Stanton had to be taken out tonight with a hamstring issue.


Final Note: The Dodgers aren't going to make a San Fran repeat easy. They handed the Champs their second loss for the season off a strong Chad Billingsley start. Kemp continued his turnaround campaign with a 2-4 night with a run scored and an RBI. In the other dugout the Giants faced more fielding issues, suffering from an errant throw from Kung Fu Panda and a Jonathan Sanchez misplay.

The Second Day of Ball

Obviously today I watched the Boston-Texas game on ESPN. It had some positives and negatives. The beat went on for Lester, who continued his trend of slow starts. In April he's 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA for his career, and he was 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA last year during the opening month. Lester was obviously not himself today, getting zero Ks, and making a lot of mistake pitches. However, he was efficient going 5.1 innings on only 88 pitches.The first inning home run to Kinsler was a meatball down the middle of the plate that should have never happened. With a couple more starts hopefully that arm of his will get warmed up. 

Meanwhile the Texas defense made a big mistake in the first, and the Sox batters chipped away at C.J. Wilson all day. But, an ugly day by Crawford (0-4 with 3 Ks) held the Sox back mid game. In the top of the 8th Ortiz took a blast deep to center and tied the game up 5-5. In the next half inning the Rangers bats struck again. Bard got killed on the right side of the plate, leaving balls up and out of the zone, allowing the Rangers to take a 9-5 lead. Feliz mowed down the bottom of the order in the 9th and the Rangers won on opening day in Arlington. However, don't fret Sox fans; Boston lost 7-2 and 7-1 in their '04 and '07 first games of the season.

Around the Horn so Far Today:Matt Holliday: Holliday had a great game last night, but was checked out after the game with some pain in his abdomen. It was released today that he has to have an appendectomy and could be out for 3-6 weeks.


Sox Offensive Developments: Ellsbury continued his hot spring, and for the first time looked like an actual leadoff man. He was 2-4 with a walk, a stolen base and 2 runs scored. A-Gon didn't bring the power, but he flourished in the five spot going 2-4 with 3 RBIs.

Bad Day to be a Wild Thing: Fausto Carmona had a day to forget going only 3.0 innings giving up 11 runs on 10 hits. Ubaldo Jimenez was able to go 5.0 IP, but not without giving up 5 ER while recording only 1 K.

Philadelphia Walkoff: Down most of the game the Phillies recovered a fantastic starting performance by Roy Halladay and walked off, on a John Mayberry Jr. single, in the 9th. I'm still a skeptic, because not only was Brandon Lyon pitching, but Michael Bourn was about 2 feet away from making that catch.

News Around the League: Randy Winn announced his retirement today and Jermaine Dye finally announced his yesterday. Also, Rays GM Andrew Friedman continues to dazzle with his team friendly contract prowess; Tampa announced yesterday they've signed starter Wade Davis to a four year extension with three team option years.


Hopefully I'll be back with more tonight after the Mariners-As game that I'll be watching on FSN.